Germany - Mobile Data Market Insights, 4G, Services and Forecasts

Synopsis

The German mobile data market has enormous potential for growth following massive investments by the four network operators to upgrade networks supporting mobile data services. The regulator anticipated future growth in coming years by auctioning spectrum in the 1.8GHz and 2.6GHz bands, as well as refarming spectrum below 1GHz for use by mobile broadband. Operators have fast-tracked the development of data-rich applications to improve profit margins as voice ARPU continues to fall in response to competition from resellers and regulatory measures on roaming and termination rates. Mobile TV has not yet caught the public imagination: the national DVB-H licence holder Mobile 3.0 withdrew services soon after launch, partly sabotaged by network operators having introduced handsets allowing users to access free-to-air DVB-T channels.

This report provides key statistics and analysis on the mobile data market in Germany, focussing on data services as well as technologies including HSPA and LTE. It also analyses market players’ strategies to exploit data revenue in coming years.

Key developments:

3G reaches 85% of the population; Telekom Deutschland trials LTE 4×4 MIMO to provide up to 250Mb/s; Vodafone serving 1,500 locations; O2 launches rural LTE; m-ticketing in Northern Hessen; demise of mobile TV; regulator opens consultation for use of 900MHz and 1800MHz bands for post-2016; more than 6,000 LTE base stations active; coverage requirements for 800MHz licensees reached in 11 Länder; E-Plus trials LTE in the 1800MHz band; regulator presents scenarios for future use of 900MHz and 1800MHz spectrum; TD plans €2.5 billion network investment to address future mobile data traffic; Vodafone launches cloud service; O2 and E-Plus consider sharing 2G and 3G infrastructure; MNOs step up m-payments platform; VATM market data for 2011; regulator's 2011 market data; telcos’ operating and financial data to September 2012; market developments to December 2012.

Companies covered include:

Telekom Deutschland, O2, Vodafone, E-Plus.

Table of Contents

• 1. Synopsis
• 2. Overview of Germany’s mobile data services market
• 3. Regulatory issues
  • 3.1 Spectrum regulations and spectrum auctions
  • 3.2 800MHz-2.6GHz
• 4. Mobile technologies
  • 4.1 Third Generation (3G) mobile
    • 4.1.1 Network sharing
    • 4.1.2 Key 3G developments
• 5. Major mobile operators
  • 5.1 Telekom Deutschland
  • 5.2 Vodafone
  • 5.3 E-Plus
  • 5.4 O2
  • 5.5 Mobile Messaging
    • 5.5.1 Short Message Service (SMS)
    • 5.5.2 Multimedia Messaging Services (MMS)
  • 5.6 Mobile data services
    • 5.6.1 General Packet Radio Services (GPRS)
    • 5.6.2 Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution (EDGE)
    • 5.6.3 High-Speed Packet Access (HSPA)
    • 5.6.4 Evolved HSPA (HSPA+)
    • 5.6.5 High-Speed Uplink Packet Access (HSUPA)
    • 5.6.6 Long-term Evolution (LTE)
    • 5.6.7 Video over mobile
    • 5.6.8 Femtocells
    • 5.6.9 Mobile VoIP
    • 5.6.10 Mobile TV
    • 5.6.11 TETRA (TErrestrial Trunked RAdio)
    • 5.6.12 Mobile content and applications
• 6. Forecasts – mobile market – 2010; 2015
  • 6.1 UMTS forecasts
  • 6.2 Notes on scenario forecasts
• 7. Related reports

• Table 1 – Number of regular 3G subscribers – 2005 - 2013
• Table 2 – Telekom Deutschland mobile subscribers – 2001 - 2012
• Table 3 – Vodafone Germany – voice and data usage – 2005 - 2012
• Table 4 – Vodafone Germany mobile subscribers – 2006 - 2012
• Table 5 – E-Plus - mobile market share – 2007 - 2012
• Table 6 – E-Plus – revenue and traffic – 2006 - 2012
• Table 7 – E-Plus subscribers by sector – 2006 - 2012
• Table 8 – O2 subscribers – contract and prepaid – 2005 - 2012
• Table 9 – O2 monthly ARPU – 2006 - 2012
• Table 10 – SMS annual message traffic – 1998 - 2012
• Table 11 – SMS sent per day – 2005 - 2012
• Table 12 – MMS traffic – 2002 - 2012
• Table 13 – Mobile data sent – 2005 - 2013
• Table 14 – Annual mobile data revenue – 2004 - 2012
• Table 15 – Mobile data as proportion to mobile revenue, by type – 2005 - 2011
• Table 16 – Broadband-capable handset sales – 2006; 2010; 2015
• Table 17 – Forecast UMTS subscribers – 2006 - 2010; 2015

• Chart 1 – E-Plus – revenue and traffic – 2006 - 2012
• Chart 2 – E-Plus subscribers by sector – 2006 - 2012
• Chart 3 – O2 subscribers – contract and prepaid – 2005 - 2012
• Chart 4 – O2 monthly ARPU – 2006 - 2012
• Chart 5 – SMS annual message traffic – 2005 - 2012
• Chart 6 – Mobile data as proportion to mobile revenue, by type – 2005 – 2011

• Exhibit 1 – Germany’s 3G auction winners – August 2000
• Exhibit 2 – Spectrum auction block allocations (800MHz, 1.8GHz, 2GHz and 2.6GHz) – May 2010
• Exhibit 3 – German 3G network sharing agreements
• Exhibit 4 – Selected MMS launches by operator in Germany

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