Germany - Mobile Data Market Insights, 4G, Services and Forecasts

Synopsis

The German mobile data market has enormous potential for growth following massive investments by the four network operators to upgrade networks supporting mobile data services. The regulator anticipated future growth in coming years by auctioning spectrum in the 1.8GHz and 2.6GHz bands, as well as refarming spectrum below 1GHz for use by mobile broadband. Operators have fast-tracked the development of data-rich applications to improve profit margins as voice ARPU continues to fall in response to competition from resellers and regulatory measures on roaming and termination rates. Mobile TV has not yet caught the public imagination: the national DVB-H licence holder Mobile 3.0 withdrew services soon after launch, partly sabotaged by network operators having introduced handsets allowing users to access free-to-air DVB-T channels.

This report provides key statistics and analysis on the mobile data market in Germany in 2011. Focussing on HSPA and LTE services, it analyses market players’ strategies and assesses the range of emerging mobile data services and technologies.

Key developments:

Benchmark auctions in 800MHz and 2.6GHz bands trigger LTE deployment; Telekom Deutschland providing LTE in northern Germany and Saxony, deploys LTE in the 1.9GHz band; Vodafone serving 1,500 locations by end-2011, extends LTE to metropolitan areas; O2 launches rural LTE; m-commerce gaining traction; m-ticketing in Northern Hessen; demise of mobile TV; regulator opens consultation for use of 900MHz and 1800MHz bands for post-2016; coverage requirements for 800MHz licensees reached in seven Länder; MNOs step up m-payments platform; VATM market data for 2010 and update to September 2011; regulator market data for 2011; operator data to September 2011.

Companies covered include:

Telekom Deutschland, O2, Vodafone, E-Plus.

1. Synopsis
2. Overview of Germany’s mobile data services market
3. Regulatory issues
- 3.1 Spectrum regulations and spectrum auctions
- 3.2 800MHz-2.6GHz
4. Mobile technologies
- 4.1 Third Generation (3G) mobile
  - 4.1.1 Network sharing
  - 4.1.2 Key 3G developments
5. Major mobile operators
- 5.1 Telekom Deutschland
- 5.2 Vodafone
- 5.3 E-Plus
- 5.4 O2
- 5.5 Mobile Messaging
  - 5.5.1 Short Message Service (SMS)
  - 5.5.2 Multimedia Messaging Services (MMS)
- 5.6 Mobile data services
  - 5.6.1 General Packet Radio Services (GPRS)
  - 5.6.2 Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution (EDGE)
  - 5.6.3 High-Speed Packet Access (HSPA)
  - 5.6.4 Evolved HSPA (HSPA+)
  - 5.6.5 High-Speed Uplink Packet Access (HSUPA)
  - 5.6.6 Long-term Evolution (LTE)
  - 5.6.7 Video over mobile
  - 5.6.8 Femtocells
  - 5.6.9 Mobile VoIP
  - 5.6.10 Mobile TV
  - 5.6.11 TETRA (TErrestrial Trunked RAdio)
  - 5.6.12 Mobile content and applications
6. Forecasts – mobile market – 2010; 2015
- 6.1 UMTS forecasts
- 6.2 Notes on scenario forecasts
7. Related reports

Table 1 – Number of regular 3G subscribers – 2005 - 2012
Table 2 – Telekom Deutschland mobile subscribers – 2001 - 2011
Table 3 – Vodafone Germany – voice and data usage – 2005 - 2011
Table 4 – Vodafone Germany mobile subscribers – 2006 - 2011
Table 5 – E-Plus - mobile market share – 2007 - 2011
Table 6 – E-Plus – revenue and traffic – 2006 - 2011
Table 7 – E-Plus subscribers by sector – 2006 - 2011
Table 8 – E-Plus ARPU by sector – 2006 - 2011
Table 9 – O2 subscribers – contract and prepaid – 2005 - 2011
Table 10 – O2 monthly ARPU – 2006 - 2011
Table 11 – O2 revenue – 2006 - 2011
Table 12 – SMS annual message traffic – 2005 - 2012
Table 13 – SMS sent per day – 2005 - 2012
Table 14 – MMS traffic – 2002 - 2012
Table 15 – Mobile data sent – 2005 - 2012
Table 16 – Annual mobile data value – 2004 - 2012
Table 17 – Mobile data as proportion to mobile revenue, by type – 2005 - 2011
Table 18 – Broadband-capable handset sales – 2006; 2010; 2015
Table 21 – Forecast UMTS subscribers – 2006 - 2010; 2015

Chart 1 – E-Plus – revenue and traffic – 2006 - 2011
Chart 2 – E-Plus subscribers by sector – 2006 - 2011
Chart 3 – E-Plus ARPU by sector – 2006 - 2011
Chart 4 – O2 subscribers – contract and prepaid – 2005 - 2011
Chart 5 – O2 monthly ARPU – 2006 - 2011
Chart 6 – SMS annual message traffic – 2005 - 2012
Chart 7 – Mobile data as proportion to mobile revenue, by type – 2005 – 2011

Exhibit 1 – Germany’s 3G auction winners – August 2000
Exhibit 2 – Spectrum auction block allocations (800MHz, 1.8GHz, 2GHz and 2.6GHz) – May 2010
Exhibit 3 – German 3G network sharing agreements
Exhibit 4 – Selected MMS launches by operator in Germany