Denmark - Telecoms, IP Networks, Digital Media and Forecasts

Publication Overview

This report provides a comprehensive overview of trends and developments in Denmark’s telecommunications market. The report analyses the mobile, internet, broadband, digital TV and converging media sectors. Subjects include:

• Market and industry analyses, trends and developments;
• Facts, figures and statistics;
• Industry and regulatory issues;
• Infrastructure;
• Major Players, Revenues, Subscribers, ARPU, MoU;
• Internet, VoIP, IPTV;
• Mobile Voice and Data Markets;
• Broadband (FttH, DSL, cable TV, wireless);
• Convergence and Digital Media;
• 3G subscriber and mobile ARPU forecasts to 2015;
• Broadband market forecasts for selective years to 2020.

Key developments:

Fibre take-up denting DSL market share; Stofa buys cable interests of Canal Digital; VoIP accounting for 37% of all fixed telephony subscriptions; TeliaSonera expects 75% LTE coverage by end-2011; TeliaSonera and Telenor sign network infrastructure sharing deal to expand LTE; TDC expands MVNO interests; mobile data traffic grew 93% in 2010; MNOs develop NFC-based mobile wallet platform; regulator’s 2010 market data update; operator data to June 2011.

Companies covered in this report include:

TDC, Stofa, TeliaSonera, YouSee, Danish Broadcasting Corporation, Telenor Denmark, H3 Scandinavia, Lycamobile, Tele2.

Researcher:- Henry Lancaster
Current publication date:- September 2011 (10th Edition)

Executive Summary

Utilities spearheading FttH growth to meet ambitious broadband targets

BuddeComm’s quarterly publication, Denmark - Telecoms, IP Networks, Digital Media and Forecasts, provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in the telecommunications and digital media markets in one of Europe’s smaller telecom markets which remains at the forefront of developments in services and innovation. The report includes the regulator’s market data for 2010 as well as operator data to June 2011.

Denmark’s competitive telecom market has developed among the highest mobile and internet penetration rates in Europe. Although the fibre sector is still developing, it has been stimulated by considerable pressure from the government and municipal authorities which are keen to push through higher broadband data rates. The regulator has facilitated this by instigating a number of measures to facilitate fibre networks builds, with a view to establishing a 50Mb/s service for households across the country by 2013 and wide-scale Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH) services capable of 1Gb/s by 2020.

In addition to network investments by the major telcos, there were also major commitments by privatised power companies in developing fibre networks serving residential and business users within their respective supply areas. These are often undertaken in conjunction with rural broadband initiatives promoted by local and regional governments. These utilities are expected to pass about 1.2 million homes by 2015.

Following a poor performance in both 2008 and 2009, Denmark’s economy has since recovered, with a 2% growth projected for 2011. The economic climate has been mirrored in the telecom sector, with lower revenue since 2007 expected to show slight growth from 2011. Telecom investment has nevertheless been stimulated by operators focussing on upgrades to their mobile networks as well as both telcos and utilities developing fibre networks. These will enable the government to meet its broadband plans by 2020, as well as allow operators to satisfy consumer demand for higher bandwidth and to exploit the revenue potential derived from future services which can be carried on these upgraded networks.

In the mobile sector, the award of 2.5GHz spectrum in 2010 allowed TDC to launch LTE services in this band by the end of the year. LTE has become a cornerstone of TDC’s strategy. TeliaSonera expected to cover 75% of the population with LTE by the end of 2011, while H3 also planned to roll out LTE networks in both Sweden and Denmark by the end of the year, providing download speeds of up to 100Mb/s. Given the government’s commitment to providing high-capacity national broadband services, LTE is set to be a main growth area in coming years.

Denmark was one of the first countries in Europe to deploy digital TV services on cable and satellite, while ASO was reached at the end of 2009, before most European markets. Four of the eight nationwide multiplexers went live by the end of 2010: five are assigned to broadcasters (with mobile TV options), one for mobile services, and two remain in digital reserve for trial and innovation. In common with other European countries demand for mobile TV is low.

Table 1 - Key telecom parameters – 2010; 2012

(Source: BuddeComm)

 Market Highlights

• The auctioning of frequencies in the 2500-2690MHz and 2010-2020MHz bands in 2010 released much needed spectrum for 4G wireless broadband services. All MNOs will use their spectrum allocations for LTE, supplementing fixed-line broadband in rural areas. Terms for the spectrum licences, being valid until 2030 and with no requirements for geographical coverage or deadlines for roll-out, have benefitted operators looking for business conditions sympathetic to long term investment.
• The cable sector has been consolidated to two main players: TDC’s YouSee and Stofa, which in early 2011 bought the Danish cable interests of the Telenor-owned Canal Digital. The acquisition brought it 633,000 households that receive their signals as part of agreements with local antennae associations. These operators now have greater scale to invest in DOCSIS3.0 technology and so retain customers in areas where FttH is being rolled out.
• The government during 2010 set in train a number of legislative measures to facilitate municipal access to fibre infrastructure in a bid to ensure that 80% households have a 50Mb/s service by 2013, and that 1Gb/s services are widely available by 2020. Sympathetic regulatory treatment will propel the fibre sector in coming year, with Denmark expected to have among the more concentrated FttH networks in Europe within the next decade.

This report is essential reading for those needing high level strategic information and objective analysis on the telecom sector in Denmark. It provides further information on:

• Market liberalisation and regulatory issues;
• The impact of the global economic crisis;
• Telecoms operators – privatisation, acquisitions, new licences;
• Mobile data market developments in coming years in light of spectrum auctions and new license awards in 2010;
• 3G developments, regulatory issues and technologies including HSPA and LTE;
• Broadband migration to an FttH architecture;
• Historical and current subscriber statistics and forecasts;
• ARPU statistics and forecasts.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

Table of Contents

• 1. Key Statistics
• 2. Telecommunications Market
  • 2.1 Overview of Denmark’s telecom market
• 3. Regulatory Environment
  • 3.1 History
    • 3.1.1 Revised NFR
  • 3.2 Regulatory authority
    • 3.2.1 National IT and Telecom Agency (NTA)
  • 3.3 Telecom sector liberalisation in Denmark
    • 3.3.1 Privatisation of Tele Danmark
    • 3.3.2 Interconnect
    • 3.3.3 Access
    • 3.3.4 Number portability (NP)
    • 3.3.5 Carrier PreSelection (CPS)
• 4. Fixed Network Operators
  • 4.1 Overview of operators
  • 4.2 TDC
    • 4.2.1 Company restructure
  • 4.3 Telenor Denmark
  • 4.4 TeliaSonera Denmark
• 5. Telecommunications Infrastructure
  • 5.1 National telecom network
  • 5.2 Alternative networks
  • 5.3 International
    • 5.3.1 Submarine cable networks
    • 5.3.2 Satellite networks
• 6. Broadband Market
  • 6.1 Overview
    • 6.1.1 Regulatory issues
    • 6.1.2 Government support
    • 6.1.3 Broadband statistics
  • 6.2 Cable modems
  • 6.3 Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL)
    • 6.3.1 Very High Data Rate DSL (VDSL)
  • 6.4 Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH) networks
    • 6.4.1 Community networks
    • 6.4.2 TDC
  • 6.5 Broadband Powerline (BPL)
  • 6.6 Wireless broadband
    • 6.6.1 WiMAX
    • 6.6.2 Fixed Wireless Access (FWA)
    • 6.6.3 Satellite
    • 6.6.4 Mobile broadband
• 7. Digital Media
  • 7.1 Overview of digital media
    • 7.1.1 Key general trends
    • 7.1.2 Business models – bundled services
    • 7.1.3 Regulatory issues
  • 7.2 Digital TV
    • 7.2.1 Broadband (IPTV)
    • 7.2.2 Video-on-Demand (VoD)
    • 7.2.3 VoIP
    • 7.2.4 Cable TV
    • 7.2.5 Satellite-based digital pay TV developments
    • 7.2.6 Digital Terrestrial TV (DTTV)
• 8. Mobile Communications
  • 8.1 Overview of Denmark’s mobile market
    • 8.1.1 Mobile statistics
    • 8.1.2 Operator market shares
  • 8.2 Regulatory issues
    • 8.2.1 Spectrum regulations and spectrum auctions
    • 8.2.2 Roaming
    • 8.2.3 Mobile number portability
    • 8.2.4 Mobile termination rates (MTRs)
    • 8.2.5 Network sharing
  • 8.3 Mobile technologies
    • 8.3.1 Digital
    • 8.3.2 Third Generation (3G) mobile
  • 8.4 Major mobile operators
    • 8.4.1 TDC
    • 8.4.2 Telenor Denmark
    • 8.4.3 Telia Danmark
    • 8.4.4 3 Scandinavia
    • 8.4.5 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)
  • 8.5 Mobile voice services
    • 8.5.1 Prepaid
  • 8.6 Mobile Messaging
    • 8.6.1 Short Message Service (SMS)
    • 8.6.2 Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS)
  • 8.7 Mobile data services
    • 8.7.1 General Packet Radio Service (GPRS)
    • 8.7.2 High-Speed Packet Access (HSPA)
    • 8.7.3 Long-term evolution (LTE)
    • 8.7.4 Unlicensed Mobile Access (UMA)
    • 8.7.5 Mobile TV
    • 8.7.6 TETRA (TErrestrial Trunked RAdio)
    • 8.7.7 Femtocells
    • 8.7.8 Near Field Communications
• 9. Forecasts
  • 9.1 Forecasts – Broadband subscribers – 2007 - 2012; 2020
    • 9.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband subscriber growth
    • 9.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband subscriber growth
  • 9.2 Forecasts - Mobile
    • 9.2.1 Forecasts – mobile ARPU - 2005 - 2010; 2015
    • 9.2.2 Forecasts – UMTS subscribers – 2006 - 2010; 2015
  • 9.3 Notes on scenario forecasts
• 10. Glossary of Abbreviations

• Table 1 – Country statistics Denmark – 2011 (e)
• Table 2 – Telephone network statistics – 2010
• Table 3 – Internet user statistics – June 2011
• Table 4 – Broadband statistics – 2011 (e)
• Table 5 – Mobile statistics – 2011 (e)
• Table 6 – National telecommunications authority
• Table 7 – Telecom revenue by sector – 2004 - 2012
• Table 8 – Telecom investment – 2007 - 2012
• Table 9 – Penetration of telecoms services, by sector – 2003 - 2012
• Table 10 – Unbundled loops and access lines – 2006 - 2010
• Table 11 – LLU, shared access price – connection, monthly rental – 2006 - 2009
• Table 12 – Fixed-line numbers ported per year – 2006 - 2010
• Table 13 – Carrier PreSelection registrations – 2005 - 2010
• Table 14 – Carrier selection market share by operator – 2008 - 2010
• Table 15 – Outgoing fixed-line traffic by type – 2006 - 2012
• Table 16 – Fixed network and ISDN lines – 2003 - 2010
• Table 17 – Alternative operator fixed-line market share – 2007 - 2010
• Table 18 – TDC Group financial data – 2007 - 2011
• Table 19 – TDC (consumer) revenue by sector – 2008 - 2011
• Table 20 – TDC (business) revenue by sector – 2008 - 2011
• Table 21 – TDC domestic subscribers per sector – 2008 - 2011
• Table 22 – Telenor Denmark fixed-line revenue – 2006 - 2011
• Table 23 – Telenor Denmark subscribers – DSL, VoIP and mobile – 2005 – 2011
• Table 24 – TeliaSonera Denmark subscribers by sector – 2005 - 2011
• Table 25 – TeliaSonera (Denmark) revenue by sector – 2006 - 2011
• Table 26 – Fixed lines in service and teledensity – 1999 - 2012
• Table 27 – Internet users and penetration rate – 1996 - 2012
• Table 28 – Total Internet subscribers and penetration rate – 2004 - 2012
• Table 29 – Dial-up Internet subscribers – 2007 - 2012
• Table 30 – Broadband penetration by technology – 2007 - 2012
• Table 31 – Total fixed-line broadband subscribers by sector; penetration – 2001 - 2012
• Table 32 – Broadband subscribers by type – incumbent or other provider – 2008 - 2010
• Table 33 – Broadband subscribers by alternative technologies – 2006 – 2010
• Table 34 – Subscribers by downstream speed – 2009 - 2010
• Table 35 – Cable broadband subscribers – 2005 - 2012
• Table 36 – YouSee subscribers by sector – 2007 - 2011
• Table 37 – YouSee revenue by sector – 2008 - 2011
• Table 38 – YouSee revenue by sector – 2008 – 2011
• Table 39 – YouSee financial data – 2007 - 2011
• Table 40 – Cable broadband service provider market shares by operator – 2006 - 2010
• Table 41 – Cable broadband subscribers by operator – 2007 - 2010
• Table 42 – TDC DSL subscribers – 2008 - 2011
• Table 43 – TeliaSonera Denmark broadband subscribers and ARPU – 2007 - 2011
• Table 44 – Telenor Denmark broadband subscribers – 2007 - 2011
• Table 45 – DSL market share by operator – 2006 - 2010
• Table 46 – DSL subscribers by operator – 2007 - 2010
• Table 47 – Proportion of DSL subscriptions by access type – 2004 - 2010
• Table 48 – DSL lines by type – 2006 - 2010
• Table 49 – Fibre broadband subscribers – 2005 - 2012
• Table 50 – Fibre broadband subscribers by operator – 2007 - 2010
• Table 51 – Wireless broadband subscribers by type – 2006 - 2010
• Table 52 – WiMAX subscribers by operator – 2007 - 2010
• Table 53 – Mobile broadband subscribers by type – 2007 - 2012
• Table 54 – TDC mobile broadband subscribers – 2008 - 2011
• Table 55 – Mobile broadband (data) subscribers by operator – 2008 - 2010
• Table 56 – Triple play subscribers – 2005 - 2012
• Table 57 – Triple play subscribers by operator – 2009 - 2010
• Table 58 – Bundled service subscribers – 2008 - 2012
• Table 59 – TDC bundled service subscribers (consumer) – 2009 - 2011
• Table 60 – IPTV subscriptions by type – 2007 - 2010
• Table 61 – IPTV subscribers by operator – 2009 - 2010
• Table 62 – TDC TV subscribers (consumer) – 2007 - 2011
• Table 63 – TDC VoD subscribers (consumer) – 2006 - 2010
• Table 64 – VoIP subscribers and traffic in minutes – 2005 - 2012
• Table 65 – VoIP penetration – 2007 - 2012
• Table 66 – TDC VoIP subscribers – 2008 - 2011
• Table 67 – Telia Denmark VoIP subscribers – 2009 - 2011
• Table 68 – Telenor VoIP subscribers – 2008 - 2011
• Table 69 – YouSee financial data – 2004 - 2011
• Table 70 – YouSee cable TV subscribers – 2003 - 2011
• Table 71 – Mobile operators, subscribers and annual change – June 2011
• Table 72 – Mobile subscribers by operator (regulator data) – 2007 - 2010
• Table 73 – Mobile subscribers and penetration – 1999 - 2012
• Table 74 – Mobile traffic in minutes – 2005 - 2012
• Table 75 – Mobile services revenue – 2000 - 2012
• Table 76 – Market share of subscribers by operator (regulator data) – 2007 - 2010
• Table 77 – European roaming charges – 2007 - 2011
• Table 78 – Annual mobile numbers ported (regulator data) – 2003 - 2010
• Table 79 – TDC domestic subscribers (retail, wholesale and Telmore) – 2003 - 2011
• Table 80 – TDC mobile services revenue – 2007 - 2011
• Table 81 – Telenor Denmark mobile subscribers, proportion prepaid – 2004 - 2011
• Table 82 – Telenor Denmark ARPU – 2004 - 2011
• Table 83 – Telenor Denmark revenue – 2005 - 2011
• Table 84 – Telenor Denmark revenue – 2005 – 2011
• Table 85 – Telenor Denmark EBITDA, op. profit – 2005 - 2011
• Table 86 – TeliaSonera (Denmark) mobile subscribers – 2005 - 2011
• Table 87 – TeliaSonera (Denmark) mobile ARPU – 2005 - 2011
• Table 88 – TeliaSonera (Denmark) mobile financial data – 2006 - 2011
• Table 89 – 3 Scandinavia subscribers – 2007 - 2010
• Table 90 – 3 Scandinavia revenue and growth by sector – 2007 - 2010
• Table 91 – 3 Scandinavia annualised ARPU and data proportion – 2007 - 2010
• Table 92 – Prepaid subscriptions and percentage of subscribers – 1999 - 2010
• Table 93 – Total SMS sent – 2003 - 2012
• Table 94 – Average number of SMS sent per subscriber – 2004 - 2012
• Table 95 – Service provider proportion of SMS messages sent – 2006 - 2010
• Table 96 – Total MMS sent – 2003 - 2012
• Table 97 – Total MMS sent – 2003 - 2010
• Table 98 – Service provider proportion of MMS messages sent – 2007 - 2010
• Table 99 – Mobile data traffic – 2007 - 2012
• Table 100 – Dedicated mobile data subscriptions – 2008 - 2012
• Table 101 – GPRS subscribers – 2002 - 2010
• Table 102 – TETRA subscribers by operator – 2006 - 2007
• Table 103 – Forecast broadband subscribers – higher market growth scenario – 2007 - 2012; 2020
• Table 104 – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower market growth scenario – 2007 - 2012; 2020
• Table 105 – Forecast mobile ARPU – 2005 - 2010; 2015
• Table 106 – Forecast UMTS subscribers – 2006 - 2010; 2015

• Chart 1 – Outgoing fixed-line traffic by type – 2006 – 2012
• Chart 2 – TDC Group financial data – 2007 – 2011
• Chart 3 – Telenor Denmark subscribers – DSL, VoIP and mobile – 2005 – 2011
• Chart 4 – TeliaSonera Denmark subscribers by sector – 2005 – 2011
• Chart 5 – TeliaSonera (Denmark) revenue by sector – 2006 – 2011
• Chart 6 – Internet users and penetration rate – 1996 – 2012
• Chart 7 – Total Internet subscribers and penetration rate – 2004 – 2012
• Chart 8 – YouSee subscribers by sector – 2007 – 2011
• Chart 9 – YouSee financial data – 2007 – 2011
• Chart 10 – TDC DSL subscribers – 2008 – 2011
• Chart 11 – TeliaSonera Denmark broadband subscribers and ARPU – 2007 – 2011
• Chart 12 – DSL lines by type – 2006 – 2010
• Chart 13 – Fibre broadband subscribers – 2005 – 2012
• Chart 14 – Wireless broadband subscribers by type – 2006 – 2010
• Chart 15 – TDC mobile broadband subscribers – 2008 – 2011
• Chart 16 – Bundled service subscribers – 2008 – 2012
• Chart 17 – IPTV subscriptions by type – 2007 – 2010
• Chart 18 – YouSee financial data – 2004 – 2011
• Chart 19 – Mobile subscribers and penetration – 1999 – 2012
• Chart 20 – TDC domestic subscribers (retail, wholesale and Telmore) – 2003 – 2011
• Chart 21 – TDC mobile services revenue – 2007 – 2011
• Chart 22 – Telenor Denmark mobile subscribers, proportion prepaid – 2004 – 2011
• Chart 23 – Telenor Denmark ARPU – 2004 – 2011
• Chart 24 – Telenor Denmark EBITDA, op. profit – 2005 – 2011
• Chart 25 – TeliaSonera (Denmark) mobile subscribers – 2005 – 2011
• Chart 26 – Prepaid subscriptions and percentage of subscribers – 1999 – 2010

• Exhibit 1 – EU – The New Regulatory Framework (NRF)
• Exhibit 2 – Access and the local loop
• Exhibit 3 – Overview of digital media
• Exhibit 4 – Denmark’s 3G licensing results – October 2001
• Exhibit 5 – SMS and MMS roaming charges – 2010
• Exhibit 6 – Premium SMS market overview – 2011