China - Mobile Market - Overview, Statistics and Forecasts

Synopsis

Over the past 15 years China has built an extensive mobile infrastructure that now supports the largest subscriber base in the world. Predominantly using 2G architecture, the market was transformed in 2008 when the government intervened and created three major full service operators and issued the long awaited 3G licences. The ruling that all three operators use different 3G standards has put pressure on China Mobile to succeed with the locally developed TD-SCDMA technology. This report provides detailed statistics and insights into the mobile market in China by operator and technology. The handset market is also covered and a breakdown given for popular mobile data services such as mobile TV. Forecasts are given for the total mobile subscriber base and 3G subscribers in particular to 2016.

Key developments:

Strong mobile growth verging on one billion subscribers; a more equitable distribution of market share developing for 3G services; the advent of LTE trials; the introduction of locally developed handsets to rival the iPhone; the shift to data based applications.

Companies covered in this report include:

China Mobile; China Telecom; China Unicom; Ericsson, Huawei, ZTE, Tencent, and Taobao.

Table of Contents

• 1. Synopsis
• 2. Mobile communications
  • 2.1 Overview of China’s mobile market
  • 2.2 Mobile statistics
    • 2.2.1 Mobile subscribers 1995-2012
    • 2.2.2 Mobile subscribers by operator
    • 2.2.3 Prepaid cards (SIM and PIM cards)
    • 2.2.4 Mobile talk time
• 3. Mobile technologies
  • 3.1 PAS/PHS (Little Smart/Xiaolingtong)
  • 3.2 GSM
  • 3.3 General Packet Radio Service (GPRS)
  • 3.4 Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution (EDGE)
  • 3.5 CDMA
  • 3.6 HSPA+
• 4. Third Generation (3G) mobile
  • 4.1 Background
  • 4.2 3G Licences
  • 4.3 3G Investments
    • 4.3.1 China Unicom
    • 4.3.2 China Mobile
    • 4.3.3 China Telecom
  • 4.4 3G developments
  • 4.5 3G statistics
• 5. 3G technologies
  • 5.1 TD-SCDMA
    • 5.1.1 Background
    • 5.1.2 TD-SCDMA trials and rollout
  • 5.2 WCDMA
  • 5.3 CDMA2000
• 6. Fourth Generation (4G) mobile
• 7. Mobile number portability (MNP)
• 8. Mobile handset market
  • 8.1 Overview
    • 8.1.1 3G TD-SCDMA handsets
    • 8.1.2 Smartphone market
    • 8.1.3 Android
    • 8.1.4 Blackberry
    • 8.1.5 iPhone
    • 8.1.6 WoPhone
    • 8.1.7 Netbooks
    • 8.1.8 ‘LifePad’
    • 8.1.9 App stores
    • 8.1.10 Nokia and Ovi Maps
• 9. Mobile data services
  • 9.1 Short Message Service (SMS)
  • 9.2 Wireless Application Protocol (WAP)
  • 9.3 Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS)
  • 9.4 Push-to-Talk (PTT)
• 10. Mobile TV
  • 10.1 Overview
  • 10.2 Market size
  • 10.3 Mobile TV standards
    • 10.3.1 Domestic standards
    • 10.3.2 Foreign standards
  • 10.4 Mobile TV developments
    • 10.4.1 China Mobile
    • 10.4.2 China Telecom
    • 10.4.3 China Unicom
• 11. Mobile applications
  • 11.1 Market overview
  • 11.2 M-commerce
    • 11.2.1 Taobao and m-commerce
  • 11.3 M-payment
  • 11.4 Mobile gaming
  • 11.5 Instant Message (IM) search services
  • 11.6 Mobile music
  • 11.7 Mobile internet
    • 11.7.1 Reasons for using the mobile internet
• 12. Forecast: Mobile subscribers 2010-2012; 2016
  • 12.1 Forecast: Total mobile subscribers 2010-2012; 2016
  • 12.2 Forecast: 3G mobile subscribers
  • 12.3 Forecasting methodology
• 13. Related reports

• Table 1 – Mobile subscribers and annual change – 1995 - 2012
• Table 2 – Mobile subscribers by operator and annual change – March 2011
• Table 3 – Prepaid mobile subscribers by operator – September 2010
• Table 4 – China Unicom postpaid versus prepaid mobile subscribers by network – 2004 - 2010
• Table 5 – China Mobile postpaid versus prepaid mobile subscribers – 2004 - 2010
• Table 6 – Mobile talk time – 2006 - 2010
• Table 7 – Little Smart (PHS) subscribers – 2002 - 2011
• Table 8 – China Telecom CDMA subscribers pre/postpaid, MOU and ARPU – 2002 - 2010
• Table 9 – China Telecom CDMA network statistics – December 2010
• Table 10 – HSPA+ and LTE downlink peak data rates
• Table 11 – 3G subscribers in China – 2008 - 2012
• Table 12 – China Mobile – TD-SCDMA datacard packages – May 2011
• Table 13 – 3G usage fee comparison – April 2009
• Table 14 – Mobile phones manufactured in China – 2004 - 2010
• Table 15 – Mobile data revenues – top three countries – 2009
• Table 16 – China Mobile mobile data service user growth – 2004 - 2010
• Table 17 – China Mobile and China Unicom mobile VAS revenue – 2009
• Table 18 – China Mobile and China Unicom mobile VAS revenue – 2010
• Table 19 – China Mobile value-added business revenue breakdown – 2006 - 2010
• Table 20 – Growth of text messages (SMS) in China and annual change – 2000 - 2010
• Table 21 – China Mobile SMS usage volume and annual change – 2003 - 2010
• Table 22 – Leading mobile value added services by subscribers and penetration - 2010
• Table 23 – Mobile internet subscribers and annual change – 2006 - 2010
• Table 24 – Mobile internet use in China – 2008 - 2010; USA and Japan – 2009
• Table 25 – Mobile internet use among urban Chinese youth – 2008 - 2010; USA and Japan urban youth – 2009
• Table 26 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2011 - 2012; 2016
• Table 27 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2011 - 2012; 2016
• Table 28 – Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and share of mobile market – 2011 - 2012, 2016

• Chart 1 – China mobile subscriber growth, population penetration – 2000 - 2012
• Chart 2 – China operator market share 2G vs 3G – March 2011
• Chart 3 – Leading mobile value added services by subscribers and penetration – 2010
• Chart 4 – China subscriber reasons for using the mobile internet
• Chart 5 – China popular mobile internet applications – June 2010