This annual publication provides analysis on the telecoms market moving into 2013 it includes forecasts, overviews and discussions on:
- Trends in Global Telecoms
- National Broadband Network
- International broadband and trans-sector activities
- Mobile communications market
- Mobile broadband
- The Internet of Things and cloud computing
- Smart infrastructure (grids, transport, cities, buildings)
- Digital Economy
Researchers:- Paul Budde, Stephen McNamara, Kylie Wansink
Current publication date:- July 12 (25th Edition)
Broadband infrastructure central to a $1 trillion economy
BuddeComm estimates that the overall telecoms services revenue passed the $40 billion mark in 2011, reflecting the mildness of the downturn in Australia compared with other countries. However, as was the case in 2011, growth remains very subdued in 2012. This is attributable to the continued decline in the fixed-line markets and the levelling off of mobile subscriptions, along with reduced pricing from operators attempting to attract increased market share.
Overall in 2011 fixed line revenues fell to around $10.5 billion across all operators.
Telstra still dominates the Australian telecoms market, although it received just under a 60% market share of total revenues in 2011, well down from the 80% market share it held in the early 2000s.
Optus’s share of service revenues continues to stagnate between 20% and 22%. However its wholesale business had a market shift in 2011 and its growth suggests that, even with a subdued market, Optus’s overall share could surpass 23% by 2013.
The Vodafone/Hutchison merger, along with the subsequent network issues, has contributed to that company’s market share dropping however, the increasing network expansion could see Vodafone returning to its previous share of total industry revenue..
The second-tier market is making gains in broadband; and they are gearing up for IPTV, which will then be bundled into their other product offerings. Although the bundled market often results in a fall in overall revenues it generally maintains a higher ARPU. Further consolidation is happening in 2012.
The fixed voice market revenue is declining in the second-tier market, but so too are mobile and broadband revenues. Falling revenue reflects increased bundle value, as well as consumers moving away from fixed voice services, but this may also be a symptom of increased reliance on VoIP-based and naked DSL platforms in the second-tier market. Nevertheless overall revenues in second-tier mobile and data services (including internet access) continue to show growth.
The second-tier telcos’ share of revenue has continued to grow since 2009, to just over 9% of total revenues by mid-2011. It is expected to increase slightly by 2013, to around 12%.
The fixed broadband market is still growing in size in 2012 and last year the percentage increase was higher than in the last couple of years. The increase in numbers appears to be coming from the continued drop-off in dial-up customers as they move to a faster and often cheaper service, plus the uptake by new customers.
Some key factors that have been contributing to the slow growth of this segment – eg, the hardware limitations in Telstra’s street cabinets – will be removed during 2012 with Telstra’s ‘Top Hat’ program.
Continued strong adoption of services such as Ethernet and private IP in the business data market segment saw revenue growth of around 15% in 2011.
The mobile market, now worth more than $17.5 billion, continues to expand – up 8% in 2011. As well as growth in overall SIOs mobile broadband grows strongly, reflecting the high adoption rate of mobile broadband datacards, as well as new devices such as the iPad, Android phones and tablets and new iPhone devices.
Declines in the fixed market limited overall telecommunications market growth in 2010 to just 2.7%, and, with the expectation of further fixed market falls, subdued broadband growth and the likelihood of intense competition in the mobile market (which will inhibit ARPU growth), BuddeComm expects overall market growth to be limited to around 1%-1.5% in 2011 and 2012.
This report provides analyses of the major developments in the various sectors of the industry as they are occurring in Australia and around the globe.
Key trends and developments
The world is facing a significant number of challenges. The key problem associated with these challenges is a lack of smart government policies that are based on integrated solutions crossing sector boundaries. Political leadership from the top is needed if this is to be achieved. It is called the trans-sector approach, where silos need to be replaced with horizontal collaborative structures – and ICT is the glue needed to build these.
FttH and the NBN
Australia is highly reliant on its income from natural resources and, like other resource-rich countries, it needs to diversify its economy. Interestingly, it is these resource-rich countries that are leading the rollout of FttH around the world.
The first NBN retail prices are looking very promising. Entry level charges are most competitive and according to BuddeComm this will see a 70%+ uptake rate once sufficient rollout mass is achieved.
It is becoming increasingly clear that only structural change can save the mobile industry. BuddeComm regularly brings this issue forward, similar to the discussion in relation to the structural separation of the fixed networks that we began just over a decade ago.
During 2012 BuddeComm estimates that the total mobile broadband market will generate revenues that are 17% up from 2010, the vast majority of which will be accounted for by 3G mobile broadband revenues. In 2011 growth continued across a range of platforms and technologies, with the use of 3G mobile and wireless broadband services growing by 70%.
According to Access Economics technologies in the key sectors of electricity, irrigation, health, transport and broadband communications would increase the net present value of Australia’s GDP by $35-$80 billion over the first ten years of their deployment. An Ericsson report found that doubling the broadband speed for an OECD economy increased GDP by 0.3% – and a 10% increase in broadband penetration increases GDP by 1%. A Deloitte report found that today the value of the internet to the Australian economy rivals iron ore exports. The report found that the internet contributed $50 billion in 2010, equivalent to 3.6% of Australia’s GDP, and predicted a growth of 7% over the next few years, to reach $70 billion by 2016.
Whether we are talking about smart cities, smart transport, smart grids, smart buildings or e-health – what is needed is good data that can be analysed in real time, allowing people and/or machines to make instant decisions in relation to issues such as energy efficiency, traffic situations, weather activities, and personal health, as well as commercial decisions. The infrastructure that can be used to link sectors together in a dynamic way is referred to as M2M or ‘the internet of things’.
The telco industry
The telecommunication industry is currently involved in a massive transformation. Since the arrival of the internet, the focus of the industry has shifted from providing defined end products to becoming a facilitator in the development of a range of new products, companies, and even new industries.
Telstra’s transitional process clearly shows that it shares the vision that has been developed around the national broadband network (NBN). But not only that – the company is now emerging as a leader in the industry, putting its new approach into practice, with a focus on the customer, innovation and new business opportunities.