Australia - National Broadband Network - Market Forecasts 2015, 2020

Synopsis

The Australian telecommunications market will change dramatically over the next ten years. Accelerated by government policies these changes will be driven by a total overhaul of the industry.

This will also transform the industry and developments such as cloud computing and the Internet of Things (IoT) will be accelerated.

The NBN will become the predominant infrastructure, and as a utilities-based network it will also provide its services to other sectors, such as healthcare, education and business. With these sectors involved we will see the industry developing specific new business models around infrastructure, ICT and retail. IPTV and other media and entertainment applications will also start to play a more important role.

Telcos will have to decide where they want to play. Infrastructure will largely move to NBN Co, its contractors (eg, Telstra) and a few backhaul providers. Companies also have the opportunity to become the ICT providers to those other sectors. The larger sectors, in particular, will create a sizeable demand for value-added infrastructure services. The first of such contracts signed in the healthcare industry offers glimpses of such a future.

All of this will assist the industry to double its size to around $80 billion by 2020.

Table of Contents

• 1. Synopsis
• 2. industry Transformation
• 3. Fixed Infrastructure market
• 4. Wholesale Market
• 5. The retail market
• 6. penetration Forecasts
  • 6.1 Roll out penetration
  • 6.2 Broadband access penetration
  • 6.3 Fibre to connect 4.2mil in 2015
• 7. The mobile market
• 8. The digital economy - trans-sector market
  • 8.1 Forecasts – 2015; 2020
  • 8.2 The digital media market
  • 8.3 Business Market Survey
    • 8.3.1 Australian Business Expectations for the NBN
    • 8.3.2 NBN impact on industry output by 2020
    • 8.3.3 Summary of survey findings
• 9. Business models and Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A)
  • 9.1 Fixed market scenarios
  • 9.2 Mobile market scenarios
• 10. Forecasting notes
• 11. Related reports

• Table 1 – NBN take up rates first release sites
• Table 2 - Broadband uptake* scenario forecasts 2015 - 2020 (household penetration)
• Table 3 - Impacts of the NBN on industry output at 2020 (% change)

• Chart 1 – Market share size of NBN trans-sector market – 2020
• Chart 2 – NBN services revenue share estimates by market share – 2015
• Chart 3 – NBN services revenue share estimates by market share – 2020