2008 Europe - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband in France and Switzerland

Publication Overview
Executive Summary
Table of Contents

Publication Overview

This report covers France and Switzerland, both key telecom markets in the forefront of emerging technologies and deployments, and closely involved with developing telecom markets in Eastern Europe. The report analyses trends and developments in telecommunications, mobile, Internet, broadband, digital TV and converging media including VoIP, VoD and IPTV developments.

· Market and industry analyses, trends and developments;

· Facts, figures and statistics;

· Industry and regulatory issues;

· Research, marketing, benchmarking;

· Major players, revenues, subscribers, prepaid;

· VoIP, IPTV, VoD, digital TV and DTTV;

· Converged media, mobile broadband;

· Market forecasts on broadband; mobile ARPU and subscribers.

Researcher:- Henry Lancaster

Current publication date:- January 2009 (7^th Edition)

Next publication date:- December 2009

Executive Summary

BuddeComm’s annual publication, 2008 Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband in France and Switzerland, profiles two key European countries in the telecom sector.

France’s large population supports one of the more influential telecom markets, while its incumbent operator France Telecom is a global player with significant fixed-line and mobile interests across Europe. The company remains at the forefront of emerging convergent business models focussed on quad play offerings. In its home market, the company has invested in an All-IP strategy and has become one of the key drivers for fibre deployments.

Switzerland’s smaller telecom market benefits from excellent broadband and mobile services, while its demanding topography has lead it to become a leader in wireless broadband strategies.

This report reviews sector liberalisation and privatisation in France and Switzerland, and analyses the development of both mobile and broadband offerings as providers develop strategies for 2009 and beyond. It also provides essential operator statistics, assesses regulatory changes and their market implications, and analyses the emergence of convergence and quad play services. Market forecasts for broadband, Mobile ARPU and subscribers are detailed for both countries.

Key highlights:

· France remains Europe’s leading market for IPTV services, accounting for about half of all subscribers. Coupled with VoD, IPTV has become standard in many French homes and has helped to re-shape domestic entertainment habits.

· Digital TV has progressed well in France: by mid-2008 about 85% of the population was served by Digital Terrestrial TV. By the end of 2011 national coverage is expected to have reached 95%.

· France’s fibre sector is catching up with the leading nations of Europe, while its regulator’s open-access model has influenced the strategies of other NRAs. The August 2008 economic development law forms a key component of France’s regulatory framework designed to achieve widespread deployment of FttH, and thus meet the country’s high-bandwidth requirements for the foreseeable future.

· Digital switchover in Switzerland has progressed more slowly than in neighbouring France, with only about a quarter of Swiss TV households having switched to digital TV. Nevertheless, the speed of switchover doubled in 2008, and the entire country can now receive digital broadcasts.

· Broadband offerings changed considerably in Switzerland in 2008, following at least three years when operators made little progress in data speeds or bundled products. Competition and network upgrades during the year produced favourable results for consumers, which should stimulates further take-up of IP-delivered services in 2009.

Broadband penetration in Switzerland and France – 2005 - 2008

Year	Switzerland	France
2005	23%	17%
2006	29%	21%
2007	32%	25%
2008	35%	27%

(Source: BuddeComm)

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

The following notes provide some background to our scenario forecasting methodology:

· This report includes what we term scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect market growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within this band.

· The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data.

· All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

For those needing high level strategic information and objective analysis on this region, this report is essential reading and gives further information on:

· Competition in the fibre sector driving fibre deeper into the national network;

· Regulatory measures to improve Next Generation Access for competing network operators;

· The impact on broadcasters and content from digital switchover;

· The effect which widespread consumer interest in bundled packages will have on quad-play business models in coming years.

1. France
- 1.1 Key statistics
- 1.2 Telecommunications market
  - 1.2.1 Overview of France’s telecom market
- 1.3 Regulatory environment
  - 1.3.1 History
  - 1.3.2 Updated legal Framework - 2008
  - 1.3.3 Regulatory authority
  - 1.3.4 Telecom sector liberalisation in France
- 1.4 Fixed network operators in France
  - 1.4.1 France Telecom
  - 1.4.2 neuf Cegetel
  - 1.4.3 SFR
- 1.5 Telecommunications infrastructure
  - 1.5.1 National telecom network
  - 1.5.2 International infrastructure
- 1.6 Broadband market
  - 1.6.1 Overview
  - 1.6.2 Cable modems
  - 1.6.3 Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL)
  - 1.6.4 Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH) networks
  - 1.6.5 Broadband Powerline (BPL)
  - 1.6.6 Wireless broadband
- 1.7 Convergence
  - 1.7.1 Overview of media convergence
  - 1.7.2 Key general trends
  - 1.7.3 Triple play models
  - 1.7.4 Quadruple play models
  - 1.7.5 Regulator issues
  - 1.7.6 Digital TV
- 1.8 Mobile communications
  - 1.8.1 Overview of France’s mobile market
  - 1.8.2 Regulatory issues
  - 1.8.3 Mobile technologies
  - 1.8.4 Major mobile operators
  - 1.8.5 Mobile voice services
  - 1.8.6 Mobile data services
  - 1.8.7 Mobile content and applications
- 1.9 Forecasts
  - 1.9.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers to 2018
  - 1.9.2 Forecasts – UMTS subscribers to 2013
  - 1.9.3 Forecasts – mobile ARPU to 2013
2. Switzerland
- 2.1 Key statistics
- 2.2 Telecommunications market
  - 2.2.1 Overview of Switzerland’s telecom market
- 2.3 Regulatory environment
  - 2.3.1 History
  - 2.3.2 Regulatory authorities
  - 2.3.3 Telecom sector liberalisation in Switzerland
  - 2.3.4 Privatisation of Swisscom
  - 2.3.5 Interconnect
  - 2.3.6 Access
  - 2.3.7 Number portability
  - 2.3.8 Carrier PreSelection (CPS)
  - 2.3.9 Universal service
- 2.4 Fixed network operators in Switzerland
  - 2.4.1 Market overview
  - 2.4.2 Swisscom
  - 2.4.3 TDC Switzerland (Sunrise)
  - 2.4.4 Cablecom
- 2.5 Telecommunications infrastructure
  - 2.5.1 National telecom network
- 2.6 Broadband market
  - 2.6.1 Overview
  - 2.6.2 Cable modems
  - 2.6.3 Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL)
  - 2.6.4 Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH) networks
  - 2.6.5 Broadband Powerline (BPL)
  - 2.6.6 Wireless broadband
- 2.7 Convergence
  - 2.7.1 Overview of media convergence
  - 2.7.2 Key general trends
  - 2.7.3 Triple play models
  - 2.7.4 VoIP
  - 2.7.5 Regulatory issues
  - 2.7.6 Digital TV (DTV)
- 2.8 Mobile communications
  - 2.8.1 Overview of Switzerland’s mobile market
  - 2.8.2 Regulatory issues
  - 2.8.3 Mobile technologies
  - 2.8.4 Major mobile operators
  - 2.8.5 Mobile voice services
  - 2.8.6 Mobile data services
  - 2.8.7 Mobile applications
- 2.9 Forecasts
  - 2.9.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers to 2018
  - 2.9.2 Forecasts – mobile ARPU to 2013
  - 2.9.3 Forecasts – UMTS subscribers to 2013
3. Glossary of Abbreviations

Table 1 – Country statistics France – 2008
Table 2 – Telecom revenue and investment statistics – 2007
Table 3 – Telephone network statistics – June 2008
Table 4 – Internet user statistics – June 2008
Table 5 – Broadband statistics – June 2008
Table 6 – Mobile statistics – March 2008
Table 7 – National telecommunications authorities
Table 8 – Telecom service investment by sector and annual change – 2003 - 2007
Table 9 – Telecom services revenue by sector and annual change – 2007 - 2008
Table 10 – End user traffic volume in minutes by sector – 2002 - 2008
Table 11 – End user traffic growth by sector – 2002 - 2008
Table 12 – ARPU by sector – 2005 - 2008
Table 13 – Proportion of telecom market value by sector – 2006 - 2007
Table 14 – Proportion of fixed-lines by technology – 2004 - 2007
Table 15 – Internet market value – 2006 - 2008
Table 16 – End user telecom market value and annual change – 2003 - 2007
Table 17 – Fixed lines subscriptions by type - 2003 - 2008
Table 18 – ARPU by sector – 2005 - 2008
Table 19 – Interconnect charges – 2006 - 2007
Table 20 – Interconnect revenue and annual change – 2007 - 2008
Table 21 – Interconnect volume in minutes and annual change – 2007 - 2008
Table 22 – France Telecom wholesale broadband offers by type – 2005 - 2008
Table 23 – LLU, shared access price - connection, monthly rental – 2004 - 2007
Table 24 – Unbundled loops and access lines – 2004 - 2006; 2008
Table 25 – Access lines, LLU and bitstream (regulator data) – 2006 - 2008
Table 26 – Fixed numbers ported – 2003 - 2007
Table 27 – Fixed numbers ported (regulator data) – 2006 - 2008
Table 28 – Indirect connections – 2006 - 2008
Table 29 – Annual change in carrier preselection – 2002 - 2008
Table 30 – CPS as % total subscriptions (excluding cable) – 2000 - 2007
Table 31 – Fixed-telephony subscriptions by type – 2003 - 2007
Table 32 – Proportion of fixed-telephony revenue by sector – Q1 2008
Table 33 – France Telecom customers by sector (France) – 2006 - 2008
Table 34 – France Telecom financial data – 2005 - 2007
Table 35 – France Telecom fixed-line, LLU, DSL subscribers – 2005 - 2008
Table 36 – France Telecom financial data – H1 2008
Table 37 – Neuf Cegetel financial data - 2006 - 2007
Table 38 – Neuf Cegetel financial data by sector and annual change - 2007 - 2008
Table 39 – Neuf Cegetel subscribers - 2006 - 2008
Table 40 – SFR subscribers - 2006 - 2008
Table 41 – SFR financial data - 2007 - 2008
Table 42 – France Telecom wholesale DSL, naked ADSL, WLR - 2006 - 2008
Table 43 – Internet users and penetration rate – 1995 - 2008
Table 44 – Percentage of households with Internet access – 1997 - 2008
Table 45 – Internet user ARPU (€), dial-up and broadband – 2004 - 2006
Table 46 – Access lines, LLU and bitstream (regulator data) – 2006 - 2008
Table 47 – Average monthly broadband and dial-up subscription cost – 2002 - 2007
Table 48 – Internet revenue by access type - 1998 - 2008
Table 49 – Dial-up Internet subscribers – 2005 - 2008
Table 50 – Broadband subscribers by type and penetration – 2000 - 2008
Table 51 – Broadband penetration by technology – 2007
Table 52 – Broadband subscribers by type – incumbent or other provider – 2006 - 2007
Table 53 – Broadband share of Internet subscribers – 2000 - 2008
Table 54 – Broadband market share by provider – 2005 - 2006; 2008
Table 55 – Cable modem subscribers – 2000 - 2008
Table 56 – Numéricable subscribers by type – 2007 - 2008
Table 57 – UPC France operating data (historic) – 2005
Table 58 – ADSL subscribers – 2000 - 2008
Table 59 – France Telecom broadband subscribers – 2005 - 2008
Table 60 – Free financial data and annual change – 2006 - 2008
Table 61 – Free DSL, LLU subscribers – 2005 - 2008
Table 62 – Liberty Surf DSL and narrowband subscribers – 2006 - 2007
Table 63 – neuf Cegetel/SFR broadband subscribers – 2004 - 2008
Table 64 – France Telecom fibre subscribers – 2006 - 2008
Table 65 – Free projections – Paris fibre - 2006; 2008; 2010; 2012; 2014
Table 66 – WiMAX operators and deployments 3.4-3.8GHz band - September 2008
Table 67 – WiMAX licensees by operator
Table 68 – IPTV subscribers – 2005 - 2008
Table 69 – France Telecom IPTV subscribers – 2005 - 2008
Table 70 – Free broadband subscribers – 2005 - 2008
Table 71 – VoIP traffic as proportion to all traffic – 2004 - 2007
Table 72 – VoIP lines and traffic in minutes – 2004 - 2008
Table 73 – VoIP subscription revenue – 2006 - 2007
Table 74 – France Telecom VoIP and Livebox subscribers – 2005 - 2008
Table 75 – Cable pay TV subscribers and penetration – 1997 - 2008
Table 76 – Satellite pay TV subscribers and penetration – 1997 - 2008
Table 77 – Canal Group revenue – 2005 - 2008
Table 78 – Canal Group subscribers – 2006 - 2008
Table 79 – Canal+ subscribers – 2007 - 2008
Table 80 – Mobile revenue by prepaid and contract sectors - 2006 - 2008
Table 81 – Average mobile monthly ARPU - 2006 - 2008
Table 82 – Mobile operators, subscribers and annual change – March 2008
Table 83 – Mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 1997; 1999 - 2008
Table 84 – Mobile services revenue (voice) and traffic in minutes – 1998 - 2008
Table 85 – Mobile voice traffic in minutes – 2005 - 2008
Table 86 – Mobile operator market share – 2005 - 2007
Table 87 – Mobile operator share of net adds – 2005 - 2008
Table 88 – Mobile termination charges – 2005 - 2010
Table 89 – Mobile interconnection revenue – 2003 - 2008
Table 90 – European roaming charges – 2007 - 2009
Table 91 – Mobile roaming revenue and traffic in minutes – 2003 - 2008
Table 92 - Cumulative mobile numbers ported – 2004 - 2008
Table 93 - Active 3G subscribers and annual change – 2007 - 2008
Table 94 – Orange mobile subscribers (France) – 2005 - 2008
Table 95 – Orange annualised ARPU – 2005 - 2008
Table 96 – Orange mobile consumer revenue – 2005 - 2008
Table 97 - SFR mobile revenue and ARPU – 2004 - 2008
Table 98 - SFR subscribers – 2006 - 2008
Table 99 - Bouygues Telecom subscribers – 2005 - 2008
Table 100 - Bouygues Telecom financial data – 2005 - 2008
Table 101 – MNO, MVNO growth and MVNO market share – 2005 - 2008
Table 102 – Prepaid and contract subscribers (national) - 2005 - 2008
Table 103 – Percentage of prepaid versus contract subscribers - 1999 - 2008
Table 104 – Data market revenue – 2002 - 2008
Table 105 – Annual SMS/MMS volume – 2000 - 2008
Table 106 – Mobile services revenues by sector – 2005 - 2008
Table 107 – Orange data revenue as % of total - 2005 - 2008
Table 108 – SMS traffic volume (national) – 2004 - 2008
Table 109 – SMS user market growth – 2002 - 2008
Table 110 – Value-added services revenue and volume (mobile networks) – 2003 - 2008
Table 111 – Mobile multimedia users and annual change (metropolitan) – 2004 - 2008
Table 112 – MMS messages sent – 2005 - 2008
Table 113 – Orange mobile broadband subscribers – 2004 - 2008
Table 114 – Orange mobile subscribers (France) – 2005 - 2008
Table 115 – Orange annualised voice and data ARPU – 2005 - 2008
Table 116 – Orange mobile consumer revenue – 2005 - 2008
Table 117 – SFR mobile data revenue (non-messaging) – 2007 - 2008
Table 118 - SFR subscribers – 2006 - 2008
Table 119 – Forecast broadband subscribers – higher market growth scenario – 2007 - 2012; 2018
Table 120 – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower market growth scenario – 2007 - 2012; 2018
Table 121 – Forecast UMTS subscriber growth – 2006 - 2013
Table 122 – Forecast mobile ARPU - 2005 - 2013
Table 123 – Country statistics Switzerland – 2008
Table 124 – Telecom revenue and investment statistics – 2006
Table 125 – Telephone network statistics – 2006
Table 126 – Internet user statistics – June 2008
Table 127 – Broadband statistics – 2008
Table 128 – Mobile statistics – March 2008
Table 129 – National telecommunications authorities
Table 130 – Fixed telephony connections – 2000 - 2006
Table 131 – Telecom sector revenue, profit and investment – 2000 - 2006
Table 132 – CPS as proportion of total lines – 1999 - 2006
Table 133 – CPS lines – 2002 - 2006
Table 134 – Swisscom net revenue, EBITDA and net income – 2004 - 2008
Table 135 – Swisscom financial data by sector – 2006 - 2007
Table 136 – Swisscom financial data by sector – H1 2008
Table 137 – Swisscom market share by sector (historic) – 2000 - 2004
Table 138 – Swisscom subscribers by sector – 2006 - 2008
Table 139 – TDC Switzerland financial data and annual change – 2006 - 2008
Table 140 – TDC Switzerland subscribers by sector – 2005 - 2007
Table 141 – Cablecom revenue and operating cash – 2006 - 2008
Table 142 – Cablecom operational data: home and subscriber statistics – 2005 - 2008
Table 143 – Fixed lines in service, teledensity and traffic in minutes – 1997 - 2006
Table 144 – ISDN subscribers – 1995; 1997; 1999 - 2007
Table 145 – Swisscom network infrastructure – 2004 - 2006
Table 146 – Internet users and penetration rate – 1996 - 2008
Table 147 – Total broadband subscribers and penetration rate – 2000 - 2008
Table 148 – Broadband penetration by technology – 2004 - 2007
Table 149 – Internet access growth by technology – 2005 - 2006
Table 150 – Cablecom operational data: home and subscriber statistics – 2005 - 2008
Table 151 – DSL accesses by main provider – 2004 - 2007
Table 152 – DSL market share by main provider – 2004 - 2007
Table 153 – Swisscom ADSL subscribers – 2003 - 2008
Table 154 – Swisscom dial-up subscribers – 2003 - 2007
Table 155 – TDC Switzerland Internet subscribers – 2006 - 2007
Table 156 – Broadband powerline connections (historic) – 2001 - 2004
Table 157 – Broadband satellite connections (historic) – 2002 - 2004
Table 158 – VoIP lines – 2004 - 2006
Table 159 – Swisscom IPTV subscribers - 2007 - 2008
Table 160 – Cablecom operational data: home and subscriber statistics – 2005 - 2008
Table 161 – Mobile operators, subscribers and annual change – March 2008
Table 162 – Share of net adds by operator – 2005 - 2008
Table 163 – Share of subscribers by operator – 2005 - 2008
Table 164 – Mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 1995; 1997; 1999 - 2008
Table 165 – Mobile numbers ported – 2000 - 2006
Table 166 – Mobile termination charges by operator – 2006; 2009
Table 167 – European roaming charges – 2007 - 2009
Table 168 – Swisscom Mobile ARPU and AMPU – 2006 - 2008
Table 169 – Swisscom Mobile revenue – 2003 - 2008
Table 170 – Swisscom Mobile subscribers – 2006 - 2008
Table 171 – TDC Sunrise subscribers – 2004 - 2008
Table 172 – TDC Sunrise revenue and annual change – 2006 - 2008
Table 173 – Orange mobile subscribers – 2000 - 2008
Table 174 – Orange mobile revenue – 2000 - 2008
Table 175 – Orange annualised ARPU – 2003 - 2008
Table 176 – Orange data as % of revenue – 2003 - 2008
Table 177 – Prepaid subscribers and market share – 1998 - 2008
Table 178 – Swisscom Mobile contract and prepaid subscribers – 2006 - 2008
Table 179 – Swisscom Mobile prepaid share of subscribers – 1998 - 2008
Table 180 – Mobile Internet traffic – 2003 - 2006
Table 181 – Swisscom Mobile sent SMS and MMS – 2007 - 2008
Table 182 – SMS, PSMS traffic and annual change – 2002 - 2006
Table 183 – MMS, premium MMS traffic and annual change – 2003 - 2006
Table 184 – Forecast broadband subscribers – higher market growth scenario – 2007 - 2012; 2018
Table 185 – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower market growth scenario – 2007 - 2012; 2018
Table 186 – Forecast mobile ARPU - 2005 - 2013
Table 187 – Forecast UMTS subscriber growth – 2005 - 2013