2008 Asian - Forecasts

Publication Overview

This market report provides a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in selected markets in Asia. It predominantly covers the fixed-line, Internet and mobile subscriber market segments in 15 countries across Asia. It is noted that our report has focused on developing economies in the region where the main segments of the markets are still very much in their basic subscriber growth phases. The forecasts cover a range of periods with some commencing in 2006 and most forecasting ending in 2017.

Researcher:- Peter Evans

Current publication date:- September 2008 (5^th Edition)

Next publication date:- October 2009

Executive Summary

This market report provides a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in selected markets in Asia. It predominantly covers the fixed-line, Internet and mobile subscriber market segments in 15 countries across Asia. It is noted that our report has focused on developing economies in the region where the main segments of the markets are still very much in their basic subscriber growth phases. The forecasts cover a range of periods with some commencing in 2006 and most forecasting ending in 2017.

The countries covered include:

Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Georgia, Indonesia, India, Kazakhstan, Laos, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Vietnam.

The report includes what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual forecasts are summarised in a series of tables. A set of sample tables are included below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for India to 2017. The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc, are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

India – Forecast fixed-line growth and penetration – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017

(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

India – Forecast fixed-line growth and penetration – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017

(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

India – Forecast Internet subscriber growth & penetration – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017

(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

India – Forecast Internet subscriber growth & penetration – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017

(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

India – Forecast mobile growth and penetration – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017

(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

India – Forecast mobile growth and penetration – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017

(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

Table of Contents

• 1. Afghanistan
  
  • 1.1 Forecast overview
    
  • 1.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2016
    
  • 1.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2016
    
  • 1.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2016
    
• 2. Azerbaijan
  
  • 2.1 Forecast overview
    
  • 2.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
    
  • 2.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
    
  • 2.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
    
• 3. Bangladesh
  
  • 3.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2016
    
  • 3.2 Forecasts – Internet services to 2016
    
  • 3.3 Forecasts – mobile market to 2016
    
• 4. Cambodia
  
  • 4.1 Forecast overview
    
  • 4.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2016
    
  • 4.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2016
    
  • 4.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2016
    
• 5. Georgia
  
  • 5.1 Forecast overview
    
  • 5.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
    
  • 5.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
    
  • 5.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
    
• 6. Indonesia
  
  • 6.1 Forecast overview
    
  • 6.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
    
  • 6.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
    
  • 6.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
    
• 7. India
  
  • 7.1 Forecast overview
    
  • 7.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
    
  • 7.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
    
  • 7.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
    
• 8. Kazakhstan
  
  • 8.1 Forecast overview
    
  • 8.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
    
  • 8.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
    
  • 8.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
    
• 9. Laos
  
  • 9.1 Forecast overview
    
  • 9.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2016
    
  • 9.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2016
    
  • 9.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2016
    
• 10. Nepal
  
  • 10.1 Forecast overview
    
  • 10.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
    
  • 10.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
    
  • 10.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
    
• 11. Pakistan
  
  • 11.1 Forecast overview
    
  • 11.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
    
  • 11.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
    
  • 11.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
    
• 12. Sri Lanka
  
  • 12.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2016
    
  • 12.2 Forecasts – Internet services to 2016
    
  • 12.3 Forecasts – mobile market to 2016
    
• 13. Thailand
  
  • 13.1 Forecast overview
    
  • 13.2 Forecasts – fixed-line services to 2017
    
  • 13.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
    
  • 13.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
    
• 14. Uzbekistan
  
  • 14.1 Forecast overview
    
  • 14.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
    
  • 14.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
    
  • 14.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
    
• 15. Vietnam
  
  • 15.1 Forecast overview
    
  • 15.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
    
  • 15.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
    
  • 15.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
    
• 16. Glossary of Abbreviations
  

• Table 1 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Afghanistan – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 2 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Afghanistan – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 3 – Forecast Internet growth in Afghanistan – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 4 – Forecast Internet growth in Afghanistan – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 5 – Forecast mobile growth in Afghanistan – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 6 – Forecast mobile growth in Afghanistan – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 7 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Azerbaijan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 8 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Azerbaijan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 9 – Forecast Internet growth in Azerbaijan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 10 – Forecast Internet growth in Azerbaijan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 11 – Forecast mobile growth in Azerbaijan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 12 – Forecast mobile growth in Azerbaijan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 13 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Bangladesh – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 14 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Bangladesh – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 15 – Forecast Internet growth in Bangladesh – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 16 – Forecast Internet growth in Bangladesh – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 17 – Forecast mobile growth in Bangladesh – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 18 – Forecast mobile growth in Bangladesh – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 19 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Cambodia – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 20 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Cambodia – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 21 – Forecast Internet growth in Cambodia – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 22 – Forecast Internet growth in Cambodia – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 23 – Forecast mobile growth in Cambodia – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 24 – Forecast mobile growth in Cambodia – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 25 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Georgia – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 26 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Georgia – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 27 – Forecast Internet growth in Georgia – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 28 – Forecast Internet growth in Georgia – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 29 – Forecast mobile growth in Georgia – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 30 – Forecast mobile growth in Georgia – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 31 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Indonesia – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 32 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Indonesia – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 33 – Forecast Internet growth in Indonesia – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 34 – Forecast Internet growth in Indonesia – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 35 – Forecast mobile growth in Indonesia – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 36 – Forecast mobile growth in Indonesia – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 37 – Forecast fixed-line growth in India – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 38 – Forecast fixed-line growth in India – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 39 – Forecast Internet growth in India – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 40 – Forecast Internet growth in India – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 41 – Forecast mobile growth in India – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 42 – Forecast mobile growth in India – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 43 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Kazakhstan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 44 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Kazakhstan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 45 – Forecast Internet growth in Kazakhstan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 46 – Forecast Internet growth in Kazakhstan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 47 – Forecast mobile growth in Kazakhstan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 48 – Forecast mobile growth in Kazakhstan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 49 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Laos – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 50 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Laos – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 51 – Forecast Internet growth in Laos – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 52 – Forecast Internet growth in Laos – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 53 – Forecast mobile growth in Laos – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 54 – Forecast mobile growth in Laos – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 55 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Nepal – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 56 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Nepal – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 57 – Forecast Internet growth in Nepal – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 58 – Forecast Internet growth in Nepal – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 59 – Forecast mobile growth in Nepal – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 60 – Forecast mobile growth in Nepal – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 61 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Pakistan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 62 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Pakistan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 63 – Forecast Internet growth in Pakistan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 64 – Forecast Internet growth in Pakistan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 65 – Forecast mobile growth in Pakistan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 66 – Forecast mobile growth in Pakistan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 67 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Sri Lanka – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 68 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Sri Lanka – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 69 – Forecast Internet growth in Sri Lanka – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 70 – Forecast Internet growth in Sri Lanka – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 71 – Forecast mobile growth in Sri Lanka – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 72 – Forecast mobile growth in Sri Lanka – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
• Table 73 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Thailand – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 74 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Thailand – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 75 – Forecast Internet growth in Thailand – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 76 – Forecast Internet growth in Thailand – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 77 – Forecast mobile growth in Thailand – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 78 – Forecast mobile growth in Thailand – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 79 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Uzbekistan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 80 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Uzbekistan – higher forecast 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 81 – Forecast Internet growth in Uzbekistan – lower forecast 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 82 – Forecast Internet growth in Uzbekistan – higher forecast 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 83 – Forecast mobile growth in Uzbekistan – lower forecast 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 84 – Forecast mobile growth in Uzbekistan – higher forecast 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 85 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Vietnam – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 86 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Vietnam – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 87 – Forecast Internet growth in Vietnam – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 88 – Forecast Internet growth in Vietnam – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 89 – Forecast mobile growth in Vietnam – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
• Table 90 – Forecast mobile growth in Vietnam – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017