2007 European Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband - Overviews

Publication Overview
Executive Summary
Table of Contents

Publication Overview

This annual report presents the latest statistical and analytical overview of Telecoms in Europe, including the twelve new European Union (EU) access countries, together with Russia, Belarus, Moldova, and the Ukraine. The report provides important data on telecoms expansion and integraion within the region, encompassing established and vital developing markets. Subjects include:

National and International Infrastructure;
New Generation Networks and IP;
Regulatory issues - EU, national, municipal;
The EU New Regulatory Framework - Policies, Results and Reviews;
i2010 Action Plan - Goals, Implications and Results;
Overview of Key Players and Providers;
Broadband Markets - DSL, Cable, Fibre, Broadband Powerline, Satellite;
Mobile Markets - Statistics, Technologies, Data Services, Mobile TV;
Convergence - Triple Play Models, IPTV, Digital TV.

Executive Summary

Telecoms markets and statistics

The European telecom market in 2007 showed a vibrancy lacking in previous years, stimulated by continuing investments in the mobile and broadband sectors. While there was little further mobile network construction, most operators have upgraded existing networks to higher-capacity HSDPA to take advantage of mobile data offerings. In conjunction with these investments, in 2008 a greater emphasis will be placed on migrating consumers to 3G services and on developing content to stimulate higher-ARPU use among consumers.

Some markets have also seen the first successful quad-play offers, either through mobile operators moving into the broadband arena or through established triple play telcos setting up as MVNOs. The review of the European Union’s New Regulatory Framework (NRF) will create further changes in the sector during 2008 and 2009. In addition, the European Commission has focussed on a range of policies which will have far reaching implications for incumbents in coming years, including proposals for a single EU telecoms regulator and measures to force structural separation on incumbents in a bid to increase competition. Structural separation will be at the forefront in a number of markets in 2008, either through incumbents themselves (Ireland) or through government and regulatory pressure (Sweden, Italy, Denmark).

Europe continues to be a prime testing ground for emerging technologies and new business models incorporating a growing range of services. Fixed-voice traffic and revenue continues to fall as mobile substitution and, to a lesser extent VoIP, take hold among consumers. Operators have thus focussed on data-rich applications such as mobile TV and Video-on-Demand. The legacy copper networks continued to be supplemented by substantial cable and fibre network deployments during 2007. Further investment in the cable sector is expected to the end of the decade following the consolidation of cable operators in key markets (the UK, Germany, and The Netherlands). A substantial increase in fibre deployments is also expected in 2008-09, principally driven by municipal involvement in providing local open-access networks.

Other key developments related to further progress towards NGNs, moving infrastructure to an IP packet-based, full service typology. In the UK some parts of the country were switched over to BT’s 21CN during 2007, while most regions will be progressively migrated to the network in 2008 and 2009. Moves by national regulators, particularly in the Netherlands, have aimed to ensure that new entrants continue to have competitive access to NGNs following the closure of legacy networks, including exchanges and Main Distribution Frames.

Broadband

Europe continued to show strong broadband growth during 2007, while growth in most markets is expected to continue until the end of the decade. Growth in some of the more developed markets, such as the Netherlands and the Nordic countries, slowed as a natural consequence of high penetration rates, while consumer demand for high-bandwidth services has pushed forward investments in ADSL2+ and fibre networks. Intensifying competition in most markets has also driven down the cost of broadband access, leaving little scope for operators to reduce tariffs further. The main growth driver remains xDSL, though fibre has enjoyed an improving footprint in certain markets, notably Scandinavia, the Netherlands and Italy, as the cost of roll-outs falls and network builds are underwritten by municipalities.

Convergence

In conjunction with investments in faster broadband networks, 2007 saw an increasing emphasis on triple play and quad play services. This development will be further stimulated in 2008 and coming years as network operators consolidate their competitive position through extensive agreements with content providers. IPTV packages of more than 100 channels have also become standard offers to attract and retain customers. Faster and more widespread broadband networks have expanded the reach of triple play to a greater proportion of the population, making the effective deployment of digital media commercially viable. With this infrastructure in place, companies can deliver innovative services which will in turn feed demand for more content.

The market for digital TV has also grown rapidly. The UK is the market leader for digital TV penetration, though countries such as Italy have also made progress following government subsidies for set-top boxes. Sweden was one of the first to complete digital switchover, in October 2007, followed by the Netherlands. Billions of Euro will be invested in this sector in coming years, and local content providers will also profit. Clearly the long-term winners will be those players who are first to offer the consumer triple play on favourable terms. National incumbents have a good starting position, since they dominate the infrastructure industry, though cable network operators also have a large subscriber base and many have been at the forefront in developing new strategies to encourage digital media.

Mobile communications

By early 2008 about 25 of the region’s markets had exceeded 100% mobile penetration. Regulatory controls and increasing competition among network providers and from a growing number of MVNOs has lead to falling ARPU for most operators. Moving further into 2008 and 2009, the proportion of data revenue to total revenue will steadily increase: data ARPU has been resilient despite promotions lowering the price of SMS services, which alone can account for up to 90% of total data revenue. Operators have successfully focused on migrating subscribers to 3G, while GSM growth has been flat or minimal. Flat-rate data plans are beginning to take hold among operators, notably H3, and in coming years this simple business model should encourage greater use of 3G services and dispel consumer concern over high costs.

Europe remains an important laboratory for emerging mobile technologies such as Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution and High-Speed Downlink Packet Access. Countries such as Finland are in the forefront of utilising 900MHz spectrum for 3G, launching the world’s first commercial 3G network in late 2007. Many countries are assigning for mobile use spectrum released by digital switchover, a move which promises much scope for innovative services in coming years.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.


1.	TELECOMS, MOBILE & BROADBAND OVERVIEW AND ANALYSIS 2007
1.1	Western Europe
1.1.1	Key highlights – 2007
1.1.2	Major telecom players
1.1.3	Internet
1.1.4	Broadband
1.1.5	Mobile communications
1.2	Eastern Europe
1.2.1	Key highlights – 2007
1.2.2	Telecom market overview
1.2.3	Major telecom players
1.2.4	Internet
1.2.5	Broadband
2.	TELECOMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE
2.1	Regulatory environment
2.1.1	Regulating Next Generation Networks (NGNs)
2.1.2	Regulating FttH
2.1.3	VoIP in Eastern Europe
2.2	Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH)
2.2.1	The European picture in 2007
2.2.2	Austria
2.2.3	The Netherlands
2.2.4	Italy
2.2.5	UK
2.2.6	Denmark
2.2.7	France
2.2.8	Norway
2.2.9	Sweden
2.2.10	Germany
2.3	Next Generation Networks (NGNs)
2.3.1	NGN in Europe
2.3.2	The UK
2.3.3	The Netherlands
2.3.4	Germany
2.3.5	France
2.3.6	Italy
2.4	Structural separation developments
2.4.1	Drivers for structural separation
2.4.2	The EC’s perspective
2.4.3	The private equity angle
2.4.4	Government push
2.4.5	Regulatory push
2.4.6	Disaster-driven
3.	VOIP
3.1	Overview
3.2	Regulatory environment
3.2.1	Regulating VoIP
3.3	VoIP services
3.3.1	Overview
3.3.2	VoIP market
3.3.3	VoIP from Skype
3.4	VoIP developments in Europe – case studies
3.4.1	UK
3.4.2	Germany
3.4.3	France
3.4.4	Ireland
3.4.5	The Netherlands
3.4.6	Sweden
3.4.7	Italy
3.5	Mobile VoIP
4.	REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
4.1	Western Europe
4.1.1	Telecommunications regulatory environment
4.1.2	Licensing of fixed networks and services
4.1.3	Privatisation
4.1.4	Twelfth report on regulatory implementation
4.1.5	European communications market – EC assessment
4.1.6	Regulatory issues
4.1.7	Access
4.1.8	Number portability
4.1.9	Carrier PreSelection
4.2	Eastern Europe
4.2.1	Overview
4.2.2	The New Regulatory Framework (NRF)
4.2.3	New accession countries
4.2.4	EU i2010 strategy
5.	BROADBAND AND INTERNET MARKET
5.1	Overview
5.1.1	Stronger Internet base
5.1.2	European broadband statistics
5.1.3	Broadband delivery
5.1.4	Consumer spend and revenue
5.1.5	Broadband costs
5.1.6	Market forecasts
5.2	Analysis of Europe’s broadband market
5.2.1	Regulatory and government support
5.3	Cable broadband in Europe
5.3.1	Standards
5.3.2	Analysis of Europe’s cable broadband market
5.4	Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL) in Europe
5.4.1	Market overview
5.4.2	Availability
5.4.3	Costs
5.4.4	Naked DSL (NDSL)
5.4.5	ADSL2+
5.5	Wireless broadband
5.5.1	Market overview
5.5.2	WiFi/WiMAX
5.5.3	Internet via satellite
5.5.4	Local Multipoint Distribution Service (LMDS)
6.	CONVERGENCE – TRIPLE PLAY AND DIGITAL TV
6.1	Western Europe
6.1.1	The triple play market
6.1.2	The digital media market
6.1.3	Industry realignments
6.1.4	Structural reforms required
6.1.5	Developing IP-networks
6.1.6	Developing strategies
6.1.7	Converging media
6.1.8	European triple play overview
6.1.9	Triple play in telecoms
6.1.10	Triple play developments in Europe – case studies
6.1.11	Digital TV in Europe
6.2	Eastern Europe
6.2.1	Overview
7.	MOBILE MARKET
7.1	Western Europe
7.1.1	Market overview
7.1.2	Regulatory environment
7.1.3	Mobile technologies
7.1.4	Mobile prepaid market
7.1.5	Major mobile operators
7.1.6	Mobile alliances
7.1.7	Third Generation (3G) mobile
7.1.8	Mobile data market
7.1.9	Mobile content and applications
7.2	Eastern Europe
7.2.1	Overview
7.2.2	Leading mobile nations
7.2.3	Third Generation (3G) networks
7.2.4	Fixed-mobile convergence
8.	GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

Exhibit 1 – Ownership of incumbent fixed-line operators by country – 2007
Exhibit 2 – DSL services and equivalent data rates - 2007
Exhibit 3 – Operators’ service bundling offers – August 2007
Exhibit 4 – Estimated analogue switch-off date in EU countries – 2007
Exhibit 5 – DTTV licensing models in selected EU countries – 2007
Exhibit 6 – Selected MVNOs and resellers in Europe – November 2007
Exhibit 7 – Sample 3G infrastructure suppliers in Europe
Exhibit 8 – European 3G network sharing agreements
Exhibit 9 – European EDGE network operators by country – 2007
Exhibit 10 – Sample European HSCSD networks by country – 2007
Exhibit 11 – European HSDPA network operators by country – 2007
Exhibit 12 – European HSUPA network operators by country – 2007
Exhibit 13 – i-mode networks in selected European markets – 2007
Exhibit 14 – Examples of BlackBerry availability in Europe – 2007

Table 1 – European ICT market value and growth – 2004 - 2008
Table 2 – ICT market growth in select countries – 2006 - 2008
Table 3 – Internet commerce revenue – 2006; 2010
Table 4 – Voice market Europe – 2000; 2005; 2010
Table 5 – European carrier services market growth - 2006 - 2008
Table 6 – European ICT expenditure - 2005 - 2006
Table 7 – European VoIP subscribers in selected countries – June 2007
Table 8 – Main broadband satellite markets – 2006 - 2007
Table 9 – Top seven European telcos by revenue - 2003 - 2005
Table 10 – Leading European telcos by revenue - 2004 - 2006
Table 11 – Internet users, growth and penetration by country – June 2007
Table 12 – Western European Internet commerce – 2005; 2009
Table 13 – Projected Internet penetration in select countries – 2006; 2010
Table 14 – Wholesale access lines – 2003 - 2007
Table 15 – Broadband penetration (top 10, per 100 inhabitants) - 2005 - 2007
Table 16 – Projected ADSL subscriber lines in select countries – 2007 - 2010
Table 17 – Cable modem subscribers in selected countries – 2002 - 2007
Table 18 – Top 20 European nations by subscribers and penetration – June 2007
Table 19 – Western Europe 3G subscribers – 2005 - 2007
Table 20 – ICT expenditure per capita in select Eastern European countries – 2006
Table 21 – Main lines in select Eastern European countries – 2004 - 2006
Table 22 – Internet users, annual change and penetration in Eastern Europe – 2006
Table 23 – Broadband subscribers, annual change & penetration in select Eastern European countries – July 2007
Table 24 – ADSL subscriptions retailed by incumbents and alternative operators in select Eastern European countries – July 2007
Table 25 – FttX subscribers in select Eastern European countries – July 2007
Table 26 – Cable broadband subscribers in select Eastern European countries – July 2007
Table 27 – Fibre as proportion of total broadband connections in selected world countries – June 2007
Table 28 – Fibre broadband access lines in selected European countries – June 2007
Table 29 – Free Paris fibre market projections - 2006; 2008; 2010; 2012; 2014
Table 30 – European VoIP subscribers – 2004 - 2007; 2011
Table 31 – European VoIP revenue – 2005 - 2007; 2011
Table 32 – European VoIP subscribers in selected countries – June 2007
Table 33 – VoIP traffic as proportion of all traffic in France – 2005 - 2006
Table 34 – VoIP lines and annual change in France – 2005 - 2006
Table 35 – VoIP subscribers and quarterly change in the Netherlands – 2005 - 2007
Table 36 – KPN VoIP subscribers – 2006 - 2007
Table 37 – VoIP subscribers and annual change in Sweden – 2004 - 2006
Table 38 – VoIP provider market share in Sweden – 2006
Table 39 – Fixed-mobile interconnection charges – 2004 - 2006
Table 40 – Availability of wholesale access – 2003 - 2007
Table 41 – Incumbent fixed and DSL lines and market share – March 2007
Table 42 – Unbundling: share of the DSL base and forecast – 2005; 2010
Table 43 – Alternative operators’ unbundled and shared access lines – March 2007
Table 44 – Fixed numbers ported by country – 2005 - 2006
Table 45 – Mobile numbers ported by country – 2005 - 2006
Table 46 – Proportion of subscribers using alternative operators, by country – 2005 - 2006
Table 47 – Proportion of subscribers using alternative providers, by call type – 2002 - 2006
Table 48 – Incumbents’ broadband market share, DSL and resale – October 2006
Table 49 – Internet users, growth and penetration by country – June 2007
Table 50 – Broadband access lines and growth in Europe – 2002 - 2007
Table 51 – Broadband access lines by type and total penetration – March 2007
Table 52 – Other broadband access lines by type – June 2007
Table 53 – Why the average home will soon require 50Mb/s to the home
Table 54 – Broadband top speed and cost per Mb/s – April 2007
Table 55 – LLU and shared access lines – 2004 - 2007
Table 56 – Average monthly LLU and shared access cost in Europe – 2004 - 2006
Table 57 – Broadband access lines by type – June 2007
Table 58 – EU wholesale access lines - 2003 - 2007
Table 59 – New entrants’ DSL lines by type of access - July 2007
Table 60 – Incumbents’ broadband, DSL, non-DSL market share – 2003 - 2007
Table 61 – Cable modem subscribers in select countries – 2002 - 2007
Table 62 – Public hotspots per 100,000 population – 2006
Table 63 – Main broadband satellite markets – 2006 – 2007
Table 64 – LLU and shared access lines – 2004 - 2007
Table 65 – Triple play households in Europe – 2005; 2010; 2015
Table 66 – Mobile and broadband (triple play): growth opportunities in selected world regions – 2005 - 2010
Table 67 – Proportion of bundled services by type – 2006
Table 68 – Bundled offers by operator – 2007
Table 69 – Proportion of households with bundled products in the Netherlands – 2004 - 2006
Table 70 – Western Europe digital TV households – 2006; 2012
Table 71 – Cable and satellite TV home penetration in selected countries – 2006
Table 72 – European DTTV homes in selected countries – 2005; 2009
Table 73 – Digital TV households and penetration (all platforms) – 2001 - 2007
Table 74 – Voice market Europe – 2000; 2005; 2010
Table 75 – GSM price basket in selected European countries – 2006 - 2007
Table 76 – European mobile subscribers and penetration – 1997 - 2007
Table 77 – Top 20 European nations by subscribers and penetration – June 2007
Table 78 – Top 10 European nations by penetration – 2005 - 2007
Table 79 – Fastest mobile growth by nation and annual change – 2004 - 2007
Table 80 – European roaming charges – 2007 - 2009
Table 81 – EU average mobile termination charges – 2004 - 2006
Table 82 – Ported mobile numbers as percentage of total – October 2006
Table 83 – Mobile numbers ported – 2005 - 2006
Table 84 – GSM subscribers – 1997 - 2007
Table 85 – 3G subscribers – 2004 - 2005; 2007
Table 86 – Camera phone sales and forecasts - 2005 - 2006; 2010
Table 87 – Market shares of handset makers – 2003 - 2007
Table 88 – O2 Group mobile subscribers by country – 2005 - 2007
Table 89 – O2 Group turnover and EBITDA – 2002 - 2006
Table 90 – O2 Group blended monthly ARPU – 2006 - 2007
Table 91 – Orange mobile subscribers by sector and annual change – Q2 2007
Table 92 – Orange mobile revenue – 2005 - 2007
Table 93 – Telefónica Móviles domestic subscribers, ARPU statistics – 2005 - 2007
Table 94 – TIM mobile subscribers, traffic and ARPU – 2005 - 2007
Table 95 – T-Mobile subscribers, selected European countries – 2001 - 2007
Table 96 – T-Mobile ARPU and annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 97 – Vodafone ARPU – prepaid, contract, blended (principal markets) - 2005 - 2007
Table 98 – Vodafone subscribers (principal markets) - 2005 - 2007
Table 99 – Vodafone voice usage - 2005 - 2007
Table 100 – Western Europe 3G subscribers – 2005 - 2007
Table 101 – 3G ARPU and user costs, selected countries – April 2007
Table 102 – 3G subscribers and market share of all mobile subscribers – 2005 - 2007
Table 103 – Data revenue as percentage of total mobile revenues – 2006 - 2007
Table 104 – Average ARPU by country – 2006 - 2007
Table 105 – Voice ARPU, non-voice ARPU, total mobile ARPU – Western Europe – 2006; 2012
Table 106 – Mobile SMS messaging revenue and forecasts – 2004 - 2008
Table 107 – Camera-enabled shipments – 2002 - 2007
Table 108 – Vodafone live! customers by country – 2002 - 2007
Table 109 – Top 10 Eastern European mobile markets: subscribers, annual change, penetration – March 2007

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Annual Publication profile

Technologies

Broadband Fixed
Internet
Mobile Communications (voice and infrastructure)
Strategies & Analyses (Industry & Markets)
Telecoms Infrastructure

Number of pages: 177

Status: Archived

Last update: 16 January 2008
View update history

Author: Stephen McNamara

NOTE: This report has been archived

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