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Global Broadband - The Future Looks Bright 08 Feb 2012

There are many other excellent government initiatives and innovative commercial projects now taking place all over the world. Today the policies of over 40 countries include acknowledgement of the national importance of broadband for their social and economic development.

With this understanding having been established, it becomes easier to develop the right policies for the development of broadband infrastructure as well as for other social and economic policies. Until now there has been no coordination between sector-based policies and regulation. Some countries do not allow their electricity companies and telecommunication companies to share infrastructure; in most countries e-health is not covered by health insurance schemes; and some of the education-based systems date back to the Middle Ages and need a total rethink and overhaul.

All of this requires a whole-of-government approach and it would be beneficial if governments were to show leadership.

At the same time the technology is advancing relentlessly, and the democratisation processes that these changes are going to bring with them are enormous. People will become much more directly and personally involved in these developments. They will no longer be passive bystanders, waiting to be told what they can do, or what products and services they can use, by vested interests operating according to decades-old structures designed to further their own political or commercial position.

People will demand better customer experiences because they know that these are achievable, and they will choose to deal with organisations that offer more assertive, interactive and personal services.

The future looks very bright. Access to broadband will empower people to look for better jobs, to achieve better business results, and to seek better healthcare and education – all the critical elements needed to build an improved more transparent, equitable, prosperous and caring global society.

For further information, see separate reports: Emerging Markets - Broadband for Emerging Economies; Global - Broadband and FttH - Key Statistics and Insights; Global - Fast Broadband and Trans-sector Policy Development.

The Arab Telecommunications Summit 07 Feb 2012

This Summit is organized by the International Telecommunication Union in partnership with the League of Arab States (LAS), and is hosted by Qatar's Supreme Council of Information and Communication Technology, ICTQatar. Connect Arab Summit is part of ITU's Connect the World series, an ambitious initiative aimed at connecting the unconnected by the year 2015. The Summit relies on a Summit preparatory process, run hand in hand by LAS and ITU.

Paul Budde has been invited to participate in this event and will be providing an update on the report he provided for the UN: Broadband, A Platform for Development he will also present in the session titled: Smarter Planet.

The overall objective of the Connect Arab Summit is to mobilise the human, financial and technical resources required to close Information and Communication Technology gaps in the region. The Summit offers a venue for leaders from the public and private sectors as well as international and regional financing and development agencies to network face-to-face and forge new partnerships. It is preceded by a preparatory process during which ICT development projects and project holders are identified, as well as partners and donors willing to contribute to the implementation of the selected projects, with a view to enhance the deployment of ICT networks, applications and services within the region.

Caribbean Telcos showing continued investment and confidence in the telecoms sector 07 Feb 2012

In most Caribbean countries the telecoms market has been liberalised, with only a few sectors in some island groups remaining monopoly enterprises. Alternative operators are active in within the full range of telecom services. The Caribbean region has a range of small markets with limited potential for growth, yet the main telcos – LIME and Digicel – have shown considerable confidence in the sector, with a willingness to invest in their fixed-line and mobile networks and so encourage consumer use of high-end data services. As such, their expectation is for future revenue streams to be derived from the migration of customers from 2G to 3G and 4G networks, and from basic broadband services to comprehensive bundled offers.

Most island groups continue to suffer from the economic downturn, with fewer tourists than there were before 2009. Yet recent encouraging figures for tourist arrivals, at least in some countries, promise slowly revitalising economies during 2012. This has been supported by funding from the IMF and World Bank in some cases, and by government efforts at economic diversification. Continuing regulatory developments have also focussed on the few remaining monopolies with a view to encouraging market competition. All in all, the telecoms sector is set to continue being one of the Caribbean region’s major growth industries.

Fixed-line broadband subscribers, select countries – 2010; 2012

Country	2010	2012 (e)
Bahamas	24,000	27,000
Barbados	56,000	58,000
Dominica	32,000	45,000
Dominican Republic	361,000	435,000
Trinidad and Tobago	145,000	195,000

(Source: BuddeComm estimates based on ITU data) Market highlights:

Regional economic growth has been hampered by continuing pressure on tourist arrivals, principally from the USA and Europe. Nevertheless, some markets have reported a slow yet steady increase in arrivals since 2011. This will be crucial for telcos during 2012 and 2013, particularly in the mobile sector which is considerably supported by tourist spend.
In terms of the regional economy, the Caribbean has faced a number of difficulties during the last two years. Weak local economies combining with a range of austerity measures have affected many islands. These conditions have contributed to reduced disposable incomes among telcos’ customers. Respite is expected during 2012, largely on the back of the recovery in the number of tourists, though this is likely to be isolated rather than regional.
The key market players – LIME and Digicel – reported slight declines in revenue in 2011, though this has barely impacted on their ability to maintain investments in their fixed and wireless networks.
BTC in the Bahamas deployed a commercial LTE network at the end of 2011, complementing its GSM/EDGE and HSPA network.
BTC’s long awaited privatisation in mid-2011 will shortly lead to the end of one of the region’s remaining monopolies, when the Bahaman mobile market is opened to competitors from 2014.
Mobile penetration in the region approaches 70%, with tourists accounting for a considerable proportion of SIM cards sold. Active SIM penetration is likely to be a more realistic 80-85%.

For detailed information, table of contents and pricing see:

Caribbean - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband

Management contract with France Telecom pays off for ETC in Ethiopia 06 Feb 2012

Ethiopia is the last country in Africa allowing its national telco, ETC a monopoly on all telecom services including fixed, mobile, Internet and data communications. This monopolistic control has stifled innovation and retarded expansion. The government tries to encourage foreign investment in a broad range of industries by allowing foreigners up to 100% equity ownership. However, there is no official schedule for the privatisation of the national carrier and the introduction of competition, but once this happens, the potential to satisfy unmet demand in all service sectors is huge. A management contract with France Telecom has led to dramatically improved performance by ETC and is seen as a first step towards privatisation.

Market highlights:

ETC transforms under management contract with France Telecom;
Detailed profile of the monopoly service provider in all market sectors;
Financial results 2010/11;
Strong revenue growth despite drastic price cuts;
Forecasts for mobile and Internet markets to 2013 and 2016;
Multi-billion US$ investments planned before 2012.

Estimated market penetration rates in Ethiopia’s telecoms sector – end 2012

Market	Penetration rate
Mobile	20%
Fixed	1.0%
Internet	1.5%

(Source: BuddeComm based on various sources)

For detailed information, table of contents and pricing see:

Ethiopia - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts

Smart Cities: sustainable engines for growth 06 Feb 2012

The concept of smart communities is based on intelligent infrastructure such as broadband (FttH) and smart grids, so that connected and sustainable communities can be developed. However, before these smart communities can be built trans-sector policies and strategies need to be developed.

They cannot be built within the silo structure that currently dominates our thinking; a holistic approach is needed – one that includes environmental issues such as self-sufficient energy buildings, exchanges for renewable energy and e-cars, delivery of e-health, e-education and e-government services, as well as digital media and internet services.

The world is facing a significant number of challenges. The key problem associated with these challenges is a lack of smart government policies based on integrated solutions that cross sector boundaries. Political leadership is needed to address these issues. Over the last few years citizens all round the world have indicated that they are ready for change. We have seen this in relation to climate change and the use of new and modern means of communication.

BuddeComm has argued that we can solve the challenges at hand, but we will have to do things differently. There is no linear way forward – lateral solutions are needed. Over the last 60 years we have created a world of specialists who operate within silos. These silos need to be demolished and new horizontal structures established in which all sectors and disciplines work together.

Leadership from the top is needed if this is to be achieved. It is called the trans-sector approach, and ICT is the glue needed to build more horizontal collaborative structures. Whether we are talking about smart cities, smart transport, smart grids, smart buildings or e-health – what is needed is good data that can be analysed in real time, allowing people and/or machines to make instant decisions in relation to energy efficiency, traffic situations, weather activities, and personal health issues, as well as commercial decisions. The infrastructure that can be used to link sectors together in a dynamic way is referred to as M2M or the internet of things.

The only large-scale national infrastructure example of such an integrated policy is unfolding inAustralia, where the government is rolling out a national broadband network based on those trans-sector principles. However, given the failure of some of the ad hoc solutions in relation to sustainability policies, this concept needs to be extended even further – the entire infrastructure should be structured around cohesive policies. Both the electricity grid and the NBN are critical elements in this and they should be used as infrastructure building blocks for a smart country, smart cities and communities and smart buildings.

In many cities around the world high density living is the norm and attention is now turning towards making this style of living more sustainable. Technological innovations include water harvesting and reuse, and solar collection and energy-efficient appliances, including those used for heating and cooling. Sustainable urban transport systems are also on the agenda for many governments.

Good government policies are the key to success.

In healthcare alone there are hundreds of silos of specialists who are unwilling to share information and work together.
By law utilities are not allow to share the data that would make it possible to more effectively manage their water, energy, gas and other infrastructure.
Regulations also make it impossible for other industries to generate energy (for example, on their factory roofs) and share that with the neighbouring community.
The current energy network is completely unprepared for the management of PV systems and for the approaching marketing blitz of smart cars.
Privacy laws need to be rewritten to make data-sharing possible according to permission-based policies (the users should own their own data, not the utility, health provider, etc).
The 17^th century-based International Property Right system needs to be changed, opened up to innovation and flexibility, and aimed at advancing knowledge and thus advancing our society in order to face the challenging future.
Governments should develop clear vision statements on how they will use smart ICT tools and infrastructure to build smart countries, cities, communities and buildings.
Local government policies are needed to prepare their communities for these developments – both at an infrastructure level and through education and information regarding the social and economic changes that are needed to obtain the full benefit from these digital opportunities.

This report first goes into detail about the two key infrastructure elements needed for smart communities, high-speed telecommunications infrastructure and smart grids. It describes the developments that are taking place inAustralia. It also highlights the role of both federal and local government and key elements of smart communities, such as e-health, e-education, e-government, smart transport and smart cars. In addition it addresses policy issues needed to move these developments further and explains how this will have an effect on the social and economic developments of local communities, and indeed on the country as a whole.

Market Highlights:

Addressing today’s economic, environmental, healthcare and education challenges
The smart city concept requires new ways of government and industry thinking
Comprehensive and interconnected policies and strategies are needed
The key role of local councils in these developments
Good visionary examples are coming fromAsia
Shared broadband and smart grid infrastructure are the backbone of smart cities
Facilitating e-health, e-education, e-government, digital media, smart transport, etc.

For detailed information, table of contents and pricing see: Australia - The Emerging Smart City Market

Austrian mobile market competition sees another round of consolidation 06 Feb 2012

The acquisition of Orange Austria by the fourth-placed operator 3 Austria is the latest round of consolidation in Austria’s fiercely competitive mobile market. Two MNOs have now been lost since T-Mobile strengthened its market position by buying tele.ring in 2006. 3 Austria has shown its commitment to the market and is a determined move for an operator with only about 10% market share.

Market revenue has steadily fallen since 2006 despite increases in the number of subscribers and traffic. This trend is likely to continue during the next two years as MNOs bear the brunt of the drop in MTRs imposed by the regulator, the continuing implementation of the EU’s Roaming Regulation, which has been extended to 2013, and the falling cost of mobile voice minutes and data as operators respond to competitive pressure by lowering their rates and package prices. From 2013 some recovery should be expected as MNOs are better able to exploit the potential of high-end mobile data services based on upgraded networks using HSPA and LTE technologies, but for now revenue expectations represent slim pickings.

Overall mobile revenue fell 3.4% in the second half of 2011, year-on-year, following a 2.7% fall in 2010. The decline is mainly attributed to the wholesale sector, which has fallen more sharply since 2008, while overall revenue has been buttressed by the retail sector benefitting from continued growth in revenue from data and value-added data services (including SMS and MMS), though this has not offset losses elsewhere.

Hand in glove with falling revenue, MNO investment in the mobile sector is likely to continue to tail off during 2012 in the wake of the poor economic environment which has affected consumer spend, as also the fact that the larger part of investment in network upgrades had been completed by the end of 2009. Investment in now concentrated in upgrades to support LTE.

These issues are explored in depth in the updated Austria - Mobile Market Insights, Statistics and Forecasts report.

Key developments:

LTE to be available to a quarter of all Austrians by 2013; mobile TV streaming success with more than 50 channels available; 2011 Frequency Utilization Plan opening up 800MHz spectrum for 4G use; strong subscriber growth keeping mobile sector revenue steady, Telekom Austria forms TA Group M2M subsidiary to manage its involvement in the M2M sector; 3 Austria buys Orange; regulator data to June 2010; operator data to Q3 2011, market developments to early 2012.

Companies covered in this report include:

Orange, 3 Austria, A1, T-Mobile, Tele2.

Henry Lancaster, Senior Analyst, Europe

For more information see the updated reports: Austria - Mobile Market Insights, Statistics and Forecasts; Austria - Key Statistics, Telecom Market and Regulatory Overviews; Austria - Broadband Market Insights, Analysis and Forecasts; Austria - Digital Economy and Digital TV - Insights, Statistics and Analysis.

3G licences and more international fibre bandwidth set to boost Gabon's broadband market in 2012 03 Feb 2012

Gabon’s oil revenues make it one of the wealthiest nations in Africa. GDP per capita is well above the African average, although a distorted income distribution and poor social indicators are evident. The telecom market was liberalised in 1999 when the government awarded three mobile telephony licences and two Internet Service Provider (ISP) licences and established an independent regulatory authority. Following two unsuccessful attempts, the privatisation of Gabon Telecom finally succeeded in 2007 when Vivendi-controlled Maroc Telecom bought a majority stake.

With competition between three service providers – Zain (formerly Celtel, now Bharti Airtel), Gabon Telecom’s Libertis, and Etisalat’s Moov – Gabon became one of the first countries in Africa to exceed 100% mobile market penetration in 2008. At the same time, the network operators have been able to maintain a much higher average revenue per user (ARPU) than their peers in the region.

The entry of a fourth network, USAN (operated by Bintel under the brand name Azur) into this virtually saturated market in 2009 triggered a price war that saw revenues and profits dive, forcing the operators to streamline their operations and to look for new income streams. Following more than a year of delays, a licence to offer 3G mobile broadband services was finally awarded in late 2011.

In contrast with the mobile market, Gabon’s fixed-line and internet/broadband sectors have remained underdeveloped due to a lack of competition and the resulting high prices. The country has always had sufficient international bandwidth on the SAT-3/WASC/SAFE fibre-optic submarine cable which runs from Portugal via South Africa to the Far East, but this facility has been monopolised by Gabon Telecom. The recent arrival of a second international submarine fibre optic cable (ACE), combined with the launch of 3G mobile broadband services is expected to bring significant improvements to this sector in 2012.

Market highlights:

One of the highest levels of mobile penetration and ARPU in Africa;
3G mobile licence finally awarded;
Second international fibre optic cable has landed;
Profiles of major players in all market sectors.

Estimated market penetration rates in Gabon’s telecoms sector – end 2012

Market	Penetration rate
Mobile	136%
Fixed	1.3%
Internet	8.8%

(Source: BuddeComm based on various sources)

For detailed information, table of contents and pricing see: Gabon - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband

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